1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor 1. Lig prediction & result

Bodrum
Referee: Burak Kamalak
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bodrum FK 1-1 Ümraniyespor.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bodrum FK, 30% draw, 23% Ümraniyespor — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bodrum FK at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodrum FK5%Draw93%Ümraniyespor2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Berat Yılmaz
⚽Vincent Aboubakar (pen)
28'
🔁Mustafa Erdilmanout: Florian Loshaj
60'
62'
🔁Alejandro Blancoout: Muhammet Tunahan Tasci
62'
🔁Serkan Göksuout: Melih Bostan
62'
🔁Santeri Hostikkaout: Toheeb Adeola Kosoko
🔁F. Apaydınout: Emre Kaplan
69'
🔁Ege Bilselout: Berkay Aslan
69'
79'
Berat Yılmaz
80'
🔁Yunus Emre Gedikout: Ali Yaşar
Florian Loshaj
83'
🔁Yusuf Sertkayaout: Adem Turk
85'
🔁Ruben Providenceout: E. Arslan
85'
88'
Berat Yılmaz
90+2'
🔁Melih Bostanout: Atalay Babacan
Arlind Ajeti
90+3'

Match stats — Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor

53%Possession47%
12Shots9
3On target5
2Corners3
1.69xG1.02

Goals against chances

Bodrum FK1 from 1.69 xGless than the chances were worth
Ümraniyespor1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bodrum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo SousaG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 34A. AytemurD
  • 23F. ApaydınD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 80R. ProvidenceM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 4A. YılmazD
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 30Elvir GashijaniF
  • 19Berkay AslanF
  • 17E. ArslanM
  • 9Kerem KayaarasiF
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 68I. TarimD
  • 32B. TosunG
Coach: Burhan Eşer
Ümraniyespor 4-2-3-1
  • 35C. TopaloğluG
  • 70O. YıldırımD
  • 58M. KartalD
  • 4M. EserD
  • 88E. GedikD
  • 10A. ĐokanovićM
  • 8S. GöksuM
  • 11Álex BlancoM
  • 17Berat YılmazM
  • 7S. HostikkaM
  • 27C. SoukouF
Substitutes
  • 28O. AydoğanF
  • 20A. BabacanM
  • 9M. BostanF
  • 12Toheeb KosokoF
  • 13Ö. KöklüG
  • 77T. TaşçıF
  • 66A. YaşarD
  • 26B. ÇakırD
  • 19T. ÖzdemirM
Coach: T. Albayrak

Form going into Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor

Bodrum FK

1. Lig

  • W2-1away to Antalyaspor25 October 2026
  • W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026

Ümraniyespor

1. Lig

  • W4-0Sivasspor24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
  • D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Bodrum FK145631813+521
12Ümraniyespor134541612+417

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor

  • 3 April 2026Bodrum FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 23 November 2025Ümraniyespor 1–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 3 February 2024Ümraniyespor 1–2 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 3 September 2023Bodrum FK 4–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Ümraniyespor

Bodrum FK

GoalsAssists

  • V. Aboubakar50
  • E. Bilsel41

Ümraniyespor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodrum FK and Ümraniyespor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bodrum FK at 47% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Berat Yılmaz 6' for Ümraniyespor, Vincent Aboubakar (penalty) 28' for Bodrum FK. Sent off: Berat Yılmaz (Ümraniyespor) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.02.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ümraniyespor a 9.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.2% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.7%, 1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bodrum FK v Ümraniyespor has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 53% / 28% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Bodrum FK's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Bodrum FK win47%▼ −6
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Ümraniyespor win23%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.