1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 1. Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: Guner, Ibrahim
Full time1 – 2

Final score: İstanbulspor 1-2 Mardin 1969.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% İstanbulspor, 28% draw, 46% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mardin 1969 at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

İstanbulspor0%Draw3%Mardin 196997%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Elvin Mendyassist: Ömer Faruk Duymaz
7'
42'
⚽Mallik Wilksassist: Tonio Teklić
Alp Tutar
43'
🔁Alieu Chamout: Aytaç Kara
45'
45'
🔁Emre Taşdemirout: Muammer Denizhan Taskan
59'
⚽Olarenwaju Kayode
🔁Ömer Faruk Duymazout: Berk Ali Nizam
62'
🔁Ali Akmanout: Mario Krstovski
62'
🔁Kubilay Sönmezout: Erdem Seçgin
62'
65'
🔁Baba Alhassanout: Đorđe Denić
Duran Şahin
75'
Elvin Mendy
76'
77'
⚽Zdravko Dimitrov (pen)
🔁Emrecan Uzunhanout: Ilian Iliev
81'
82'
🔁Tonio Teklićout: Şahverdi Çetin
Aytaç Kara
84'
86'
🔁Olarenwaju Kayodeout: O. Yıldırım
86'
🔁Zdravko Dimitrovout: Berkay Dogan
Abdullah Dijlan Aydin
87'

Match stats — İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969

52%Possession48%
5Shots14
2On target7
2Corners11
1.34xG2.43

Goals against chances

İstanbulspor1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mardin 19692 from 2.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

İstanbulspor 4-2-3-1
  • 28A. TutarG
  • 15E. MendyD
  • 4D. SahinD
  • 37Umut İslamoğluD
  • 89E. UzunhanD
  • 12K. SönmezM
  • 21D. AydınM
  • 27M. FallM
  • 52Ö. DuymazM
  • 30Alieu ChamM
  • 81A. AkmanF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DoganG
  • 6I. DayakliM
  • 34A. KaraM
  • 77M. KrstovskiF
  • 11B. NızamF
  • 10I. IlievM
  • 5M. OlogoD
  • 44E. SeçginM
  • 9M. SolF
Coach: Özer Hurmacı
Mardin 1969 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. KardeşlerG
  • 3N. YardımcıD
  • 25M. ŞengülD
  • 15U. GezerD
  • 33E. TaşdemirD
  • 16A. KabakM
  • 42B. AlhassanM
  • 91T. TeklićM
  • 47M. WilksM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 9O. KayodeF
Substitutes
  • 11B. BalatM
  • 8Đ. DenićM
  • 64B. DoğanD
  • 70Enes ErolM
  • 29Ö. KahveciG
  • 17E. KorkmazD
  • 77D. TaşkanF
  • 45O. YıldırımF
  • 7Ş. ÇetinM
Coach: Ivaylo Petev

Form going into İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969

İstanbulspor

1. Lig

  • L0-5away to Muğlaspor24 October 2026
  • L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026

Mardin 1969

1. Lig

  • W2-1Manisa F.K.26 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Esenler Erokspor19 October 2026
  • W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19İstanbulspor1422101233-218
4Mardin 1969147431913+625

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Mardin 1969

İstanbulspor

GoalsAssists

  • Alieu Cham41

Mardin 1969

GoalsAssists

  • O. Kayode52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mardin 1969 won 2–1 at İstanbulspor. The model had made a win for Mardin 1969 its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Elvin Mendy 7' for İstanbulspor, Mallik Wilks 42' for Mardin 1969, Olarenwaju Kayode 59' for Mardin 1969. On expected goals it finished 1.34–2.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave İstanbulspor a 89.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 86.3% after a win, 89.7% after a draw, 91.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.0%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Mardin 1969 the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 5.4% going in: 6.4% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.