2 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri
Referee: Yigit Arslan
Full time6 – 0

Final score: Kayserispor 6-0 Muğlaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Kayserispor, 23% draw, 18% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kayserispor at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Manadi Camaraassist: Taulant Seferi
6'
14'
🔁İ. Furatout: Korede Osundina
⚽Daniel Morenoassist: Görkem Sağlam
39'
⚽Daniel Moreno
41'
45'
🔁Korede Osundinaout: Poyraz Yildirim
🔁Sinan Kurtout: Ensar Kemaloglu
45'
45'
🔁Ibrahim Sissokoout: Yasin Uzunoglu
🔁Benhur Keserout: Florent Hasani
58'
🔁Görkem Sağlamout: Murat Cem Akpinar
58'
⚽Oguzhan Matur (OG)
62'
68'
🔁Daniel Avramovskiout: Driton Camaj
70'
Bilal Ceylan
🔁Daniel Morenoout: Oğulcan Çağlayan
73'
🔁Denis Raduout: Mert Göckan
76'
⚽Taulant Seferiassist: Manadi Camara
78'
85'
🔁Bilal Ceylanout: Ahmet Engin
⚽Florent Hasaniassist: Manadi Camara
88'

Match stats — Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor

59%Possession41%
10Shots9
7On target3
1Corners5
3.09xG0.86

Goals against chances

Kayserispor6 from 3.09 xGmore than the chances were worth
Muğlaspor0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kayserispor 4-1-4-1
  • 35G. DeğirmenciG
  • 7M. UçarD
  • 4S. GülerD
  • 3J. TabidzeD
  • 22D. RaduD
  • 8S. KurtM
  • 10B. KeserM
  • 28Mamadi CamaráM
  • 61G. SağlamM
  • 97T. SeferiM
  • 27D. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 6C. AkpınarM
  • 20J. BrenetD
  • 5K. CihanD
  • 88M. DulcaM
  • 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
  • 17M. GöçkanD
  • 9F. HasaniF
  • 11E. KemaloğluM
  • 71O. ÇağlayanF
Coach: A. Gerin
Muğlaspor 4-4-2
  • 17E. KılıçarslanG
  • 22B. CeylanD
  • 88Yiğit FidanD
  • 15O. NahırcıD
  • 5O. MaturD
  • 11M. DiarraM
  • 23A. GünerenM
  • 21J. ÇelhakaM
  • 91İ. FuratM
  • 10D. AvramovskiF
  • 27I. SissokoF
Substitutes
  • 9P. YıldırımF
  • 99Y. UzunogluF
  • 13K. OsundinaF
  • 53Alihan KazmazD
  • 28A. EnginF
  • 31Arel EkinciG
  • 25S. DilliM
  • 7D. CamajF
  • 20B. BulutM
Coach: Y. Koşukavak

Form going into Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor

Kayserispor

1. Lig

  • D2-2away to Pendikspor25 October 2026
  • D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026

Muğlaspor

1. Lig

  • W5-0İstanbulspor24 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Manisa F.K.19 October 2026
  • L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kayserispor149323311+2230
11Muğlaspor144641825-718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Muğlaspor

Kayserispor

GoalsAssists

  • T. Seferi102
  • D. Moreno101
  • F. Hasani50

Muğlaspor

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diarra41
  • Y. Uzunoglu41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kayserispor beat Muğlaspor 6–0. The model had made a win for Kayserispor its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Manadi Camara 6' for Kayserispor, Daniel Moreno 39' for Kayserispor, Daniel Moreno 41' for Kayserispor, Oguzhan Matur (own goal) 62' for Kayserispor, Taulant Seferi 78' for Kayserispor, Florent Hasani 88' for Kayserispor. On expected goals it finished 3.09–0.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kayserispor a 77.1% chance to finish in the top two: 80.3% after a win, 74.0% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kayserispor v Muğlaspor has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Kayserispor win59%▲ +8
  2. Draw23%▼ −5
  3. Muğlaspor win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.