1 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Sivasspor vs Boluspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Sivas
Referee: Suleyman Bahadir
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sivasspor 1-2 Boluspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Sivasspor, 25% draw, 17% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sivasspor at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sivasspor0%Draw6%Boluspor94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽M. Çaylı
11'
⚽Zeki Dursunassist: Furkan Kaçmaz
⚽Cihat Celik
14'
32'
•Rodrigo Rivas González
44'
Furkan Kaçmaz
Mert Celik
44'
🔁Salih Kavrazlıout: Turan Tuzlacik
45'
🔁Mehmet Feyzi Yildirimout: Uğur Çiftçi
45'
45'
🔁Muhammed Mertout: T. Artuç
59'
Kevin Andres Cuesta Rodriguez
65'
🔁Rodrigo Rivas Gonzálezout: Ege Özkayimoglu
65'
🔁Furkan Kaçmazout: Nurettin Korkmaz
🔁Cihat Celikout: Oguzhan Aksoy
72'
🔁Valon Ethemiout: Ebrima Ceesay
79'
🔁Burak Kapacakout: Kerem Atakan Kesgin
79'
80'
🔁Bertu Ozyurekout: Hosue Díaz
80'
🔁M. Çaylıout: Fernando Escobar
M. Mohammed
87'

Match stats — Sivasspor vs Boluspor

62%Possession38%
14Shots6
3On target3
4Corners1
1.37xG0.84

Goals against chances

Sivasspor1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Boluspor2 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sivasspor 4-1-4-1
  • 16Arda ErdusunG
  • 7M. PaluliD
  • 4M. ÇelikD
  • 20M. MohammedD
  • 26M. YıldırımD
  • 8C. CharisisM
  • 11B. KapacakM
  • 28S. KavrazlıM
  • 23C. ÇelikM
  • 27V. EthemiM
  • 9R. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 66Oguzhan AksoyF
  • 1G. BakırbaşG
  • 30E. CeesayM
  • 99Yilmaz CinF
  • 19E. GökayF
  • 77Y. KefkirD
  • 60K. KesginM
  • 34T. TuzlacikD
  • 43Eymen YurdcuM
Coach: Çağdaş Çavuş
Boluspor 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TafasG
  • 2F. MetinD
  • 50B. GöçmenD
  • 3K. CuestaD
  • 54C. ÖzdemirD
  • 21M. MertM
  • 67B. ÖzyürekM
  • 17M. ÇaylıM
  • 23Z. DursunM
  • 11Furkan KaçmazM
  • 9R. RivasF
Substitutes
  • 35E. ÖzkayımoğluF
  • 25M. ÖzkanG
  • 32E. YunuszadəD
  • 27Ali Uğurhan UğurluD
  • 22Arda Tuğra SaygıD
  • 14A. KırımD
  • 77N. KorkmazM
  • 10Fernando EscobarF
  • 19J. DiazM
Coach: Mustapha Yatabaré

Form going into Sivasspor vs Boluspor

Sivasspor

1. Lig

  • L0-4away to Ümraniyespor24 October 2026
  • D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026

Boluspor

1. Lig

  • L0-3Vanspor FK23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
  • L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Sivasspor142751723-613
20Boluspor131111628-224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Boluspor

  • 9 April 2026Boluspor 1–2 Sivasspor1. Lig
  • 30 November 2025Sivasspor 1–0 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 22 January 2017Sivasspor 3–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 21 August 2016Boluspor 4–1 Sivasspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Boluspor

Sivasspor

GoalsAssists

  • R. Manaj102

Boluspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Boluspor won 2–1 at Sivasspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Sivasspor at 58% and given a win for Boluspor 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: M. Çaylı 3' for Boluspor, Zeki Dursun 11' for Boluspor, Cihat Celik 14' for Sivasspor. On expected goals it finished 1.37–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sivasspor a 24.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 21.2% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 31.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.9%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sivasspor v Boluspor has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is Sivasspor's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sivasspor win58%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Boluspor win17%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.