1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Igdir Kisla Semt Sahasi, Igdir
Referee: Turgut Doman
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Iğdır FK 1-1 Antalyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Iğdır FK, 27% draw, 22% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Iğdır FK at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iğdır FK5%Draw92%Antalyaspor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Serkan Asan
19'
45'
🔁Ahmet Sağatout: Mevlüt Şimşek
61'
🔁Soner Dikmenout: Nuno Da Costa
⚽Leon Çalışkan
66'
🔁Leon Çalışkanout: Dino Hotić
68'
68'
⚽Nuno Da Costaassist: Bünyamin Balci
70'
🔁Jesper Ceesayout: Hasan Yakub İlçin
70'
🔁F. Nzabaout: Güray Vural
Gökcan Kaya
76'
🔁Serdar Gürlerout: Moustapha Camara
79'
82'
Bünyamin Balci
🔁Arda Çolakout: Ozder Ozcan
88'
🔁Felix Ohene Afena-Gyanout: Efe-Kaan Sihlaroglu
88'
90'
🔁Omer Beyazout: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt

Match stats — Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor

48%Possession52%
10Shots4
3On target1
6Corners3
0.88xG0.56

Goals against chances

Iğdır FK1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Antalyaspor1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Iğdır FK 4-1-4-1
  • 29J. SzumskiG
  • 61S. AsanD
  • 5A. ÖztürkD
  • 18L. KouagbaD
  • 28S. GönülD
  • 21D. ErdoğanM
  • 33F. Afena-GyanM
  • 44L. CaliskanM
  • 58G. KayaM
  • 17S. GürlerM
  • 9A. ÇolakF
Substitutes
  • 2B. MoğultayD
  • 77Ahmet KöseD
  • 23D. HotićM
  • 7M. CamaraF
  • 22A. SelviD
  • 8E. SihlaroğluM
  • 1T. TepeG
  • 19Ö. ÖzcanF
  • 4A. ÖztürkD
Coach: K. Kocak
Antalyaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 7B. BalcıD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 35J. CeesayM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 23A. SağatF
Substitutes
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 11G. VuralD
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 21A. YiğiterG
  • 27M. YılmazD
  • 9Nuno da CostaF
  • 20Hasan Yakub İlçinM
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
Coach: O. Özköylü

Form going into Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor

Iğdır FK

1. Lig

  • W2-1away to Bandırmaspor24 October 2026
  • W1-0Boluspor18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026

Antalyaspor

1. Lig

  • L1-2Bodrum FK25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
  • L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Iğdır FK148421911+828
8Antalyaspor146262021-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor

  • 3 February 2026Iğdır FK 6–0 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Iğdır FK and Antalyaspor

Iğdır FK

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Iğdır FK and Antalyaspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Iğdır FK at 51% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leon Çalışkan 66' for Iğdır FK, Nuno Da Costa 68' for Antalyaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iğdır FK a 10.9% chance to finish in the top two: 12.7% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.0%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Antalyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 13.8% going in: 8.6% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Iğdır FK v Antalyaspor has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Iğdır FK's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Iğdır FK win51%▲ +12
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Antalyaspor win22%▼ −10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.