1 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Referee: M. Allaerts
Full time1 – 2

Final score: St. Truiden 1-2 OH Leuven.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% St. Truiden, 25% draw, 20% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden0%Draw6%OH Leuven94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Sebaoui (pen)assist: I. Sebaoui
24'
⚽N. Mbuku (pen)assist: N. Mbuku
32'
🔁K. Takaiout: S. Taniguchi
46'
⚽N. Mbukuassist: F. Soelle
46'
53'
⚽R. Mirisolaassist: S. Schrijvers
55'
J. Lawrence
🔁R. Merlenout: S. Shinkawa
67'
🔁I. Sebaouiout: K. Matsuzawa
67'
67'
🔁E. Addaiout: K. Vaesen
🔁F. Soelleout: S. Bazdar
72'
73'
🔁T. Ogiwaraout: T. Vlietinck
81'
⚽D. Opokuassist: W. George
🔁J. Pupeout: A. Muja
84'
K. Matsuzawa
84'
88'
D. Opoku
90+3'
R. Nyakossi
90+5'
T. Simons
90+5'
🔁W. Georgeout: L. Lakomy

Match stats — St. Truiden vs OH Leuven

64%Possession36%
26Shots21
7On target4
15Corners9
3.81xG1.58

Goals against chances

St. Truiden1 from 3.81 xGless than the chances were worth
OH Leuven2 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
  • 16Léo KokuboG
  • 3Taiga HataD
  • 4Kota TakaiD
  • 26Visar MusliuD
  • 23Joedrick PupeD
  • 18Nelson IshiwatariM
  • 8Abdoulaye SissakoM
  • 11Nathanaël MbukuM
  • 14Ryan MerlenM
  • 10Ilias SebaouiM
  • 19Frederic Soelle SoelleF
Substitutes
  • 5Shogo TaniguchiD
  • 99Shion ShinkawaM
  • 38Kaito MatsuzawaF
  • 9Samed BaždarF
  • 7Arbnor MujaF
  • 21Matt LendfersG
  • 27Jeremy Kandje MbambiD
  • 22Wolke JanssensD
  • 71Ryotaro ArakiM
OH Leuven 3-4-3
  • 1Dani van den HeuvelG
  • 5Jamie LawrenceD
  • 28Ewoud PletinckxD
  • 34Roggerio NyakossiD
  • 99Davis OpokuM
  • 6Wouter GeorgeM
  • 8Siebe SchrijversM
  • 26Takuya OgiwaraM
  • 7Emmanuel AddaiF
  • 18Robin MirisolaF
  • 21William BalikwishaF
Substitutes
  • 17Kyan VaesenF
  • 77Thibault VlietinckD
  • 24Łukasz ŁakomyM
  • 13Kiany VromanG
  • 3Noë DussenneD
  • 30Alessandro FontanarosaD
  • 48Bryang KayoM
  • 20Shin YamadaF
  • 19Chukwubuikem IkwuemesiF

Form going into St. Truiden vs OH Leuven

St. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League

  • L2-3away to Club Brugge KV25 October 2026
  • L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
  • L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League

  • D2-2Lommel United24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
  • W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12St. Truiden113262222011
10OH Leuven113351217-512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven

  • 18 January 2026St. Truiden 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 23 November 2025OH Leuven 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 16 March 2025OH Leuven 3–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 15 September 2024St. Truiden 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 17 May 2024St. Truiden 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 20 April 2024OH Leuven 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and OH Leuven

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

OH Leuven

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

OH Leuven won 2–1 at St. Truiden. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 55% and given a win for OH Leuven 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: N. Mbuku 46' for St. Truiden, R. Mirisola 53' for OH Leuven, D. Opoku 81' for OH Leuven. On expected goals it finished 3.81–1.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave St. Truiden a 5.7% chance to finish in the top four: 6.6% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 3.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.4%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

For OH Leuven the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 25.2% going in: 16.8% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 27.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.8%, 8.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.