1 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Lommel United vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Soevereinstadion, Lommel
Referee: K. van Damme
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Lommel United 2-0 Gent.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Lommel United, 30% draw, 39% Gent — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gent at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lommel United99%Draw1%Gent0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
M. Delorge
38'
R. De Mil
57'
🔁M. Delorgeout: L. Benes
57'
🔁A. Kadriout: T. De Vlieger
🔁T. Gooijerout: N. Rommens
62'
🔁S. Appuahout: J. Talvitie
67'
71'
🔁M. Deanout: J. Vergara
🔁T. Reynersout: D. Gordic
76'
🔁S. Nypanout: I. Dada-Mascoll
76'
⚽J. Talvitieassist: D. Gordic
82'
84'
T. De Vlieger
85'
🔁L. Lopesout: E. H. Seck
85'
🔁S. Van Der Heydenout: A. Omgba
⚽D. Gordicassist: L. Schoofs
87'
90'
T. Araujo

Match stats — Lommel United vs Gent

59%Possession41%
16Shots15
7On target4
3Corners5
1.34xG1.34

Goals against chances

Lommel United2 from 1.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gent0 from 1.34 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23Matthias PieklakG
  • 2Jason van DuivenD
  • 3Timothy EyomaD
  • 4Shawn AdewoyeD
  • 47Tristan GooijerD
  • 6Joey PelupessyM
  • 41Sverre NypanM
  • 10Tom ReynersM
  • 15Lucas SchoofsM
  • 11Stredair AppuahM
  • 9Don-Angelo KonaduF
Substitutes
  • 8Nicolas RommensM
  • 7Juho TalvitieF
  • 44Isaiah Dada-MascollM
  • 22Đorđe GordićM
  • 1Nikola IvezićG
  • 14Jesper TolinssonD
  • 17Emile VandecraenD
  • 46Niek CorthoutsF
  • 73Alexander ReumersF
Gent 3-4-2-1
  • 33Davy RoefG
  • 57Matties VolckaertD
  • 3Maksim PaskotsiD
  • 44Siebe Van der HeydenD
  • 45Hyllarion GooreM
  • 22Leonardo LopesM
  • 17Mathias DelorgeM
  • 20Tiago AraújoM
  • 37Abdelkahar KadriF
  • 11Momodou SonkoF
  • 21Max DeanF
Substitutes
  • 27Tibe De VliegerM
  • 8László BénesM
  • 47Josué VergaraF
  • 10Aimé OmgbaM
  • 59El Hadji SeckF
  • 31Bas EversG
  • 30Kjell PeersmanG
  • 39Abdul AyindeD
  • 56Mamadou DialloD

Form going into Lommel United vs Gent

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

  • D2-2away to OH Leuven24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
  • D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026

Gent

Jupiler Pro League

  • W4-0Anderlecht25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
  • W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Lommel United114431513+216
3Gent11911206+1428

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lommel United vs Gent

  • 1 December 2021Lommel United 0–2 GentCup

Leading scorers: Lommel United and Gent

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Gent

GoalsAssists

  • I. Cisse40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lommel United beat Gent 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gent at 39% and given a win for Lommel United 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Talvitie 82' for Lommel United, D. Gordic 87' for Lommel United. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lommel United a 11.9% chance to finish in the top four: 15.2% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Gent the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 8.0% going in: 10.3% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lommel United v Gent has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 33% / 31% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is Gent's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lommel United win31%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Gent win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.