Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Borussia Dortmund, 24% draw, 23% Real Betis — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 14M. BeierF
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 44E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 30P. DrewesG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 40S. InacioF
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 39F. ManéD
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 12Ángel OrtizD
- 3Diego LlorenteD
- 4NatanD
- 16V. GómezD
- 6F. BernalM
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 7AntonyM
- 18N. DeossaM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 19T. ParrottF
- 24Aitor RuibalF
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 27J. A. MoranteF
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 22IscoM
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
- W2-1away to Sabah FA20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
Real Betis
UEFA Champions League
- W1-0Feyenoord21 October 2026
- W3-2FC Porto14 October 2026
- W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- S. Guirassy40
Real Betis
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat Real Betis 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Borussia Dortmund at 53%. The goals: Fábio Silva 49' for Borussia Dortmund, Aitor Ruibal 67' for Real Betis, Konstantinos Karetsas 72' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 2.66–0.88.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win53%▼ −4
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Real Betis win23%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.