Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 3-2 Liverpool.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Fenerbahçe, 26% draw, 47% Liverpool — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 21K. Peprah OppongD
- 3A. BrownD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 91N. KantéM
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 11M. GreenwoodF
- 9R. LukakuF
- 17İ. KahveciF
- 45N. DorgelesF
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 18M. MüldürD
- 77O. MimoviÄD
- 22L. MercanD
- 34M. GünokG
- 28B. ElmazM
- 14Y. DemirD
- 13T. ÇetinG
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 2J. GomezD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 42T. NyoniM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 23Víctor MuñozM
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 29B. BarcolaF
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 7F. WirtzM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 67L. KoumasF
- 6M. KerkezD
- 9A. IsakF
- 18C. GakpoF
- 76J. DannsF
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
- D2-2Slavia Praha20 October 2026
- L0-6away to Aston Villa14 October 2026
- D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
Liverpool
UEFA Champions League
- W4-3Villarreal20 October 2026
- W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- M. Greenwood42
- Talisca40
Liverpool
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fenerbahçe beat Liverpool 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Liverpool at 47% and given a win for Fenerbahçe 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Treymaurice Nyoni 25' for Liverpool, Mason Greenwood 29' for Fenerbahçe, Alexander Isak 69' for Liverpool, Archie Brown 73' for Fenerbahçe, Vedat Muriqi 79' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 1.78–1.59.
How the call on Fenerbahçe v Liverpool has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 48% / 23% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, down 21 points.
- Fenerbahçe win27%▼ −21
- Draw26%▲ +3
- Liverpool win47%▲ +18
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Fenerbahçe's most recent league matches and Liverpool's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.