4 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Referee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Full time2 – 3

Final score: AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% AEK Athens FC, 23% draw, 57% Real Madrid — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Madrid at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC3%Draw91%Real Madrid6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aboubakary Koitaassist: Luka Jovic
12'
32'
⚽Jude Bellinghamassist: Marc Cucurella
Kervin Arriaga
34'
🔁Lovro Majerout: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
53'
🔁Mijat Gaćinovićout: Răzvan Marin
60'
🔁Kaan Kairinenout: Barnabás Varga
60'
65'
Marc Cucurella
67'
🔁Yan Diomandeout: Federico Valverde
67'
🔁Bernardo Silvaout: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
⚽Stavros Piliosassist: Aboubakary Koita
75'
78'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Denzel Dumfries
81'
🔁Marc Cucurellaout: Brahim Díaz
81'
🔁Viníciusout: Álvaro Fernández Carreras
86'
🔁Jude Bellinghamout: Carlos Espí
🔁Luka Jovicout: Oleksandr Zubkov
88'
90+2'
⚽Federico Valverdeassist: Brahim Díaz
Aboubakary Koita
90+5'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

30%Possession70%
9Shots24
5On target8
0Corners7
0.95xG3.4

Goals against chances

AEK Athens FC2 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Madrid3 from 3.40 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44Filipe RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 11A. KoitaM
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 6K. KairinenM
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 9L. JovićF
  • 8M. GaćinovićF
Substitutes
  • 41Marios BalamotisG
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 1T. StrakoshaG
  • 19B. VargaF
  • 21D. VidaD
  • 27M. VitálisM
  • 90ZiniF
Coach: M. Nikolić
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 3Éder MilitãoD
  • 22A. RüdigerD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinícius JúniorM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 38Sergio MartínezM
  • 26Sergio MestreG
  • 27Thiago PitarchM
Coach: José Mourinho

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

AEK Athens FC

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-5away to Manchester City20 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 October 2026
  • W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026

Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-1RB Leipzig21 October 2026
  • W4-3away to AS Roma14 October 2026
  • W2-1Inter8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
29AEK Athens FC4103511-63
2Real Madrid4400137+612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid

AEK Athens FC

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid won 3–2 at AEK Athens FC. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aboubakary Koita 12' for AEK Athens FC, Jude Bellingham 32' for Real Madrid, Stavros Pilios 75' for AEK Athens FC, Kylian Mbappé 78' for Real Madrid, Federico Valverde 90+2' for Real Madrid. Sent off: Aboubakary Koita (AEK Athens FC) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 0.95–3.40.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.