FC Porto vs Napoli UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 4-1 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% FC Porto, 27% draw, 23% Napoli — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 19André SilvaF
- 17Borja SainzF
- 12Z. SanusiD
- 22A. VarelaM
- 33SouzaD
- 9SamuF
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 24AndorinhaG
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 1A. MeretG
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 21M. PolitanoM
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 26A. VergaraM
- 6B. GilmourM
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 11K. De BruyneF
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 20L. LuccaF
- 14N. ContiniG
- 23GiovaneF
- 70N. LangF
- 40C. LietoD
- 38A. ChiummarielloM
Form going into FC Porto vs Napoli
FC Porto
UEFA Champions League
- L0-1PSV Eindhoven20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Betis14 October 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
Napoli
UEFA Champions League
- W4-3Bodo/Glimt20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Napoli 4–1. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jan Bednarek 11' for FC Porto, Scott McTominay 43' for Napoli, Gabri Veiga 71' for FC Porto, Jakub Kiwior 80' for FC Porto, Samuel Aghehowa (penalty) 90' for FC Porto. Sent off: Rafael Marin Zamora (Napoli) 88'. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.44.
How the call on FC Porto v Napoli has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- FC Porto win50%▼ −5
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Napoli win23%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.