Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Libertad Asuncion 0-1 Cerro Porteno.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Libertad Asuncion, 27% draw, 30% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad Asuncion at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 3R. RojasD
- 23N. FreireD
- 14A. FretesD
- 11E. VeraM
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 6Á. CampuzanoM
- 7A. ManzurM
- 9G. AguilarF
- 10L. MelgarejoF
- 31T. FernándezD
- 28M. FernándezF
- 38J. Estigarribia MezaD
- 13J. BogarínM
- 20H. FernándezM
- 5G. FloresD
- 19I. FrancoM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 26I. RamirezF
- 1M. RoffoG
- 2F. DomínguezD
- 39L. J. ServinD
- 5J. MorelD
- 4A. CañeteD
- 15B. RiverosD
- 32C. BobadillaM
- 30G. GiménezM
- 34C. ChenaM
- 19P. VegettiF
- 21S. AraújoF
- 13G. BenítezD
- 35M. ChaparroD
- 3A. EspinolaM
- 18A. GamarraM
- 40M. KlimowiczM
- 12A. MartínezG
- 33H. MosqueraF
- 16I. RamírezD
- 7D. RodríguezM
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
- 30 August 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 24 January 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 23 November 2025Cerro Porteno 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 August 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 April 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- J. Morel50
- D. Rodríguez45
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cerro Porteno won 1–0 at Libertad Asuncion. The model had leaned towards a win for Libertad Asuncion at 43% and given a win for Cerro Porteno 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Sergio Araujo 31' for Cerro Porteno. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Libertad Asuncion a 65.0% chance to finish in the top four: 80.7% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 45.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.7%, 19.3 points lower than before the match.
For Cerro Porteno the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.3% going in: 14.2% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 1.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.2%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.