Lens vs Como UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lens 1-9 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Lens, 25% draw, 46% Como — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 10 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 2R. AguilarD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 7F. SotocaF
- 31S. SagnanD
- 38M. SoaresM
- 28J. KadileF
- 1R. GurtnerG
- 24J. GraditD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 8Y. TitraouiM
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 2M. KempfD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 6Luis MillaM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 10N. PazM
- 8M. CaqueretM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 13A. DossenaD
- 12Lorenzo Luigi GinelliG
- 16KaikiD
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 21S. RicciM
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 54Matteo PapaccioliM
Form going into Lens vs Como
Lens
UEFA Champions League
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV21 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting CP13 October 2026
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
Como
UEFA Champions League
- W4-1Manchester United21 October 2026
- L2-3away to Feyenoord14 October 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lens and Como
Lens
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas61
- N. Paz35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como won 9–1 at Lens. The model had made a win for Como its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Anastasios Douvikas 7' for Como, Anastasios Douvikas 32' for Como, Nico Paz 40' for Como, Lucas Da Cunha 47' for Como, Marc-Oliver Kempf 53' for Como, Anastasios Douvikas 57' for Como, Mattia Liberali 62' for Como, Ruben Aguilar 65' for Lens, Martin Baturina 69' for Como, Matteo Papaccioli 90+1' for Como. On expected goals it finished 0.85–4.33.
How the call on Lens v Como has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 25% / 46%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Lens win29%▼ −7
- Draw25%=
- Como win46%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.