6 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Full time5 – 4

Final score: Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 33% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portland Timbers at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Janssen (pen)
11'
⚽D. Callender (OG)
20'
23'
Michael Boxall
⚽V. Janssenassist: D. Da Costa
26'
32'
⚽M. Caldeiraassist: J. Pereyra
🔁J. Caicedoout: J. Ortiz
36'
37'
⚽A. Markanichassist: K. Yeboah
Finn Surman
45+7'
50'
⚽M. Caldeira
⚽V. Janssenassist: A. Lassiter
55'
🔁V. Janssenout: D. Chara
68'
🔁A. Lassiterout: Antony
68'
⚽K. Veldeassist: Antony
71'
72'
🔁W. Trappout: N. Triantis
72'
🔁M. Caldeiraout: T. Chancalay
74'
Jefferson Díaz
78'
🔁K. Yeboahout: M. Malone
🔁E. Millerout: J. Waterman
81'
🔁D. Da Costaout: I. Smith
82'
88'
🔁O. Geneout: C. Harvey
88'
🔁A. Markanichout: M. Gonzalez
90+6'
Morris Duggan
90'
⚽T. Chancalayassist: C. Harvey

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

49%Possession51%
11Shots17
5On target8
4Corners3
3.19xG2.98

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers5 from 3.19 xGmore than the chances were worth
Minnesota United FC4 from 2.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 11AntonyF
Coach: Jack Cassidy
Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 3K. DuncanM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 9K. YeboahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 5N. RomeroD
  • 33K. ChandlerD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 25N. TriantisD
  • 11M. MaloneF
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
Coach: Cameron Knowles

Form going into Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Austin30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
  • W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
  • W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026

Minnesota United FC

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
  • W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
  • L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
  • D1-1San Diego2 August 2026

What these results say

  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
  • Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146
10Minnesota United FC341111125658-244

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah184

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portland Timbers beat Minnesota United FC 5–4. The model had made a win for Portland Timbers its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: V. Janssen (penalty) 11' for Portland Timbers, D. Callender (own goal) 20' for Portland Timbers, V. Janssen 26' for Portland Timbers, M. Caldeira 32' for Minnesota United FC, A. Markanich 37' for Minnesota United FC, M. Caldeira 50' for Minnesota United FC, V. Janssen 55' for Portland Timbers, K. Velde 71' for Portland Timbers, T. Chancalay 90' for Minnesota United FC. On expected goals it finished 3.19–2.98.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.