1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Start vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansand
Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Start 0-1 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Start, 27% draw, 46% Lillestrom — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lillestrom at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Start0%Draw4%Lillestrom96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽Gustav Kjolstad Nyheimassist: Filip Ottosson
45'
Felix Vá
63'
🔁Gustav Nordhout: Eric Kitolano
🔁Steve Mvoueout: Eirik Schulze
68'
🔁Jesper Corneliusout: Nikolaos Koutsakos
68'
79'
🔁Yildren Ibrahimajout: Henrik Molvaer Melland
79'
🔁Thomas Lehne Olsenout: Fredrik Gulbrandsen
🔁Hakon Lorentzenout: Marius Nordal
81'
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: Altin Ujkani
86'
88'
🔁Felix Váout: Stian Kristiansen
•Altin Ujkani
90+4'
Altin Ujkani
90+5'

Match stats — Start vs Lillestrom

49%Possession51%
12Shots22
1On target4
5Corners5
1.37xG2.1

Goals against chances

Start0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Lillestrom1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 27O. ToureD
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 12D. DashaevD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 20H. LorentzenF
Substitutes
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 15M. NordalF
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 35S. SamuyiwaM
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 3A. UjkaniD
Coach: A. Karadas
Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 26Y. PaintsilD
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 20VáM
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 15G. NordhM
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
Substitutes
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 7L. AlperudM
  • 25S. AkanjiF
Coach: H. Ødegaard

Form going into Start vs Lillestrom

Start

Eliteserien

  • W1-0Sandefjord25 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Molde18 October 2026
  • L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026

Lillestrom

Eliteserien

  • W3-2Brann25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sandefjord18 October 2026
  • D2-2Molde11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Start2654172759-3219
4Lillestrom2614393935+445

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Start vs Lillestrom

  • 11 April 2026Lillestrom 3–1 StartEliteserien
  • 16 August 2025Lillestrom 3–0 Start1. Division
  • 26 July 2025Start 0–3 Lillestrom1. Division
  • 16 September 2018Start 3–0 LillestromEliteserien
  • 9 April 2018Lillestrom 1–0 StartEliteserien
  • 23 October 2016Lillestrom 1–1 StartEliteserien

Leading scorers: Start and Lillestrom

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lillestrom won 1–0 at Start. The model had made a win for Lillestrom its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim 30' for Lillestrom. Sent off: Altin Ujkani (Start) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.37–2.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Start a 97.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 93.1% after a win, 98.6% after a draw, 99.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Start v Lillestrom has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 27% / 27% / 46%: the biggest move is Start's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Start win27%▼ −5
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Lillestrom win46%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.