Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-4 Kristiansund BK.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 26% draw, 21% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87L. ØyG
- 32E. WichneD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 24S. RostedD
- 21A. HiimD
- 6A. SherM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 17N. WilliamsM
- 18Bop GueyeF
- 10S. SørliF
- 5L. HøylandD
- 22V. HalvorsenM
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 2M. LodeD
- 51Ljung MaximilianF
- 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
- 33A. NibeM
- 1J. PrytsG
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 12A. SætherG
- 59M. ElviusD
- 6J. IsaksenD
- 17M. WilliamsenD
- 25J. KitolanoD
- 3F. FlexD
- 24G. ChristensenM
- 14S. SkeideM
- 10H. BrusethM
- 11Z. BytyqiM
- 7S. SvendsenF
- 27A. RønningF
- 1M. LansingG
- 4J. JúlíussonD
- 8E. IsufiM
- 22H. HaugenD
- 2A. BørsetD
- 23T. SvendsenM
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
- W2-1Aalesund25 October 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
- W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien
- D2-2KFUM Oslo25 October 2026
- L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
- 18 July 2026Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 25 February 2026Kristiansund BK 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
- 25 August 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 13 July 2025Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 15 September 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 2 June 2024Kristiansund BK 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Kristiansund BK
GoalsAssists
- L. Alvheim120
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kristiansund BK won 4–2 at Sarpsborg 08 FF. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53% and given a win for Kristiansund BK 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Marius Elvius 3' for Kristiansund BK, Zymer Bytyqi 6' for Kristiansund BK, Gustav Ørsøe Christensen 31' for Kristiansund BK, Victor Emanuel Halvorsen 49' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Sondre Sorlie (penalty) 61' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Haakon Haugen 90+6' for Kristiansund BK. Sent off: Bjorn Utvik (Sarpsborg 08 FF) 79'. On expected goals it finished 3.61–2.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kristiansund BK a 91.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 81.3% after a win, 91.8% after a draw, 95.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.3%, 10.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sarpsborg 08 FF v Kristiansund BK has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Sarpsborg 08 FF's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF win53%▼ −3
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Kristiansund BK win21%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.