1 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Valerenga vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Intility Arena, Oslo
Referee: Marius Hansen Grotta
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Valerenga 4-0 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Valerenga, 25% draw, 36% Tromso — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Valerenga at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Valerenga99%Draw1%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Vetle Skjaervik
7'
Vetle Skjaervik
⚽Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter (pen)
9'
10'
🔁Morten Bjorloout: Leon Hien
Ghayas Zahid
11'
11'
Alexander Warneryd
⚽Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeterassist: Dennis Gjengaar
21'
Dennis Gjengaar
42'
⚽Mathias Grundetjernassist: Dennis Gjengaar
50'
🔁Ghayas Zahidout: Odin Thiago Holm
62'
65'
🔁Daniel Brautout: Heine Asen Larsen
65'
🔁Lars Olden Larsenout: Jesper Andreas Grundt
🔁Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeterout: Gabriel Rajkovic
70'
78'
🔁Casper Oyvannout: Vince Osuji
78'
🔁Sander Håvik Innværout: Isak·Dahlqvist
⚽Gabriel Rajkovicassist: Petter Strand
80'
🔁Lucas Janus Ravn-Harenout: Abdoulie Jatta
84'
🔁Fidel Brice Ambinaout: Magnus Westergaard
84'
🔁Håkon Sjåtilout: Ivan Nasberg
84'
90'
Alexander Warneryd

Match stats — Valerenga vs Tromso

70%Possession30%
18Shots3
9On target0
3Corners2
2.36xG0.33

Goals against chances

Valerenga4 from 2.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tromso0 from 0.33 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 3H. SjåtilD
  • 4A. Kiil OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 26D. GjengaarD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 29F. AmbinaM
  • 11G. ZahidM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 17M. GrundetjernF
  • 90O. SaeterF
Substitutes
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 15O. HolmM
  • 13S. LønningG
  • 37I. NäsbergD
  • 7H. NielsenF
  • 49A. JattaD
Coach: J. Moesgaard
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 37S. InnværD
  • 4V. SkjærvikD
  • 25C. ØyvannD
  • 30I. VådebuD
  • 29A. WarnerydD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 70M. BjørloM
  • 7L. Olden LarsenF
  • 9D. BrautF
Substitutes
  • 21L. HienF
  • 22H. LarsenM
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 27M. MikkelsenD
  • 15V. ErlienF
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 8J. GrundtM
Coach: J. Vik

Form going into Valerenga vs Tromso

Valerenga

Eliteserien

  • W1-0away to Bodo/Glimt24 October 2026
  • W3-1Brann18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026

Tromso

Eliteserien

  • L1-3away to Viking25 October 2026
  • D1-1KFUM Oslo18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Valerenga2695124347-432
6Tromso2611784340+340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Tromso

  • 11 July 2026Tromso 4–0 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 4 October 2025Valerenga 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 31 May 2025Tromso 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 15 March 2025Valerenga 1–4 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 May 2024Valerenga 1–0 TromsoNM Cupen
  • 17 March 2024Valerenga 3–1 TromsoFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Valerenga and Tromso

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren112

Tromso

GoalsAssists

  • H. Larsen104
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Valerenga beat Tromso 4–0. The model had made a win for Valerenga its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter (penalty) 9' for Valerenga, Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter 21' for Valerenga, Mathias Grundetjern 50' for Valerenga, Gabriel Rajkovic 80' for Valerenga. Sent off: Vetle Skjaervik (Tromso) 7', Alexander Warneryd (Tromso) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.36–0.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valerenga a 1.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.5% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Valerenga v Tromso has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 24% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Tromso's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Valerenga win39%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Tromso win36%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.