Bristol City vs Blackburn Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 0-1 Blackburn.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bristol City, 29% draw, 30% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bristol City at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Blackburn
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 2L. EissatD
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 3C. PringD
- 12J. KnightM
- 27G. YahM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 10S. TwineM
- 23D. BallardF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 11S. BellF
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 40B. CollinsG
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 15L. McNallyD
- 4A. RandellM
- 22B. TóthG
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 17H. CarterD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 2R. AlebiosuM
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 3H. PickeringM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 10T. CantwellF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 29M. JørgensenF
- 7A. KargboF
- 1A. PearsG
- 11J. FevrierF
- 14D. De NeveM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 24M. BaradjiM
Form going into Bristol City vs Blackburn
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Charlton10 October 2026
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
Blackburn
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bristol City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Blackburn
- 24 February 2026Blackburn 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 4 November 2025Bristol City 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 25 January 2025Bristol City 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 14 September 2024Blackburn 3–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 10 April 2024Bristol City 5–0 BlackburnChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Blackburn
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Blackburn won 1–0 at Bristol City. The model had leaned towards a win for Bristol City at 41% and given a win for Blackburn 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Oladapo Afolayan 38' for Blackburn. On expected goals it finished 2.04–0.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bristol City a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.3% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 9.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Blackburn the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.8% going in: 5.6% after a win, 3.3% after a draw, 2.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.