13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Millwall vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

The Den, London
Referee: Edward Duckworth
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Millwall 0-1 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Millwall, 29% draw, 31% Swansea — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Millwall at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Millwall4%Draw93%Swansea3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Jay Fulton
Derek Mazou Sacko
23'
23'
Vitor Matos
Lyndon Dykes
44'
Zak Sturge
51'
🔁Jordi Osei-Tutuout: Tristan Crama
64'
🔁Jenson Metcalfeout: Luke Cundle
64'
🔁Kyrell Lisbieout: Yanis Ali Issoufou
65'
65'
🔁Zan Vipotnikout: Ross Stewart
65'
🔁Elijah Justout: melker widell
65'
🔁Jay Fultonout: Goncalo Franco
77'
🔁Jenson Seeltout: Stephen Welsh
83'
Filip Lissah
🔁Mark Sykesout: Alfie Doughty
84'
84'
🔁Moussa Kounfolo Yeoout: Ronald Pereira Martins
90'
⚽Ronald Pereira Martinsassist: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
🔁Camiel Neghliout: D. Kelly
90+2'

Match stats — Millwall vs Swansea

62%Possession38%
8Shots14
4On target2
13Corners2
1.09xG1.84

Goals against chances

Millwall0 from 1.09 xGless than the chances were worth
Swansea1 from 1.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 34F. MarschallG
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 22K. LisbieM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 25L. CundleM
  • 45A. DoughtyM
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 35Y. IssoufouF
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 18R. LeonardD
  • 4T. CramaD
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
Coach: A. Neil
Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 8E. JustM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 49M. YeoF
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 16Tom IorpendaM
  • 35RonaldF
  • 31R. StewartF
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 7M. WidellM
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into Millwall vs Swansea

Millwall

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
  • D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
  • W4-0Bolton5 September 2026

Swansea

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
  • W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
  • D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Millwall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
  • Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Millwall155372327-418
6Swansea158252218+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millwall vs Swansea

  • 4 January 2026Millwall 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 27 September 2025Swansea 1–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 26 April 2025Millwall 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 26 October 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 4 May 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship

The full Millwall vs Swansea record →

The result against the call

Swansea won 1–0 at Millwall. The model had leaned towards a win for Millwall at 40% and given a win for Swansea 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ronald Pereira Martins 90' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Millwall a 31.1% chance to finish in the top four: 36.0% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Swansea the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.6% going in: 57.5% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 46.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.