13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Cardiff vs Watford Championship prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: John Busby
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Cardiff 5-1 Watford.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cardiff, 28% draw, 25% Watford — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cardiff at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Martin Payero
⚽Jack Moylan (pen)
11'
🔁Dylan Lawlorout: William Fish
29'
⚽Jack Moylanassist: C. Ashford
35'
⚽Matthew Pollock (OG)
41'
⚽Ollie·Tannerassist: Perry Tian Hee Ng
45+5'
56'
🔁Myron Boaduout: Mamadou Doumbia
56'
🔁Jordan Zemuraout: Marc Bola
56'
🔁Stephy Mavididiout: Amin Nabizada
⚽Christopher Willock (pen)
65'
67'
🔁Martin Payeroout: Iker Bravo
🔁Jack Moylanout: David Turnbull
69'
🔁Christopher Willockout: Calum Scanlon
69'
69'
🔁Othmane Maammaout: Krépin Diatta
73'
Edo Kayembe
🔁Ollie·Tannerout: Callum Robinson
82'
🔁Joel Baganout: Isaak Davies
82'
⚽Callum Robinsonassist: David Turnbull
85'
86'
Amin Nabizada
Perry Tian Hee Ng
86'
87'
⚽Hector Kyprianouassist: Iker Bravo
90+5'
Hector Kyprianou

Match stats — Cardiff vs Watford

58%Possession42%
22Shots13
10On target4
6Corners1
3.75xG1.52

Goals against chances

Cardiff5 from 3.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Watford1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 48D. LawlorD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 45Cian AshfordM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 8J. MoylanF
Substitutes
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 47C. RobinsonF
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 2W. FishD
  • 39I. DaviesF
  • 50Charlie HoltM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Watford 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. RavagliaG
  • 23O. TraoréD
  • 6M. PollockD
  • 4K. KebenD
  • 33J. ZemuraD
  • 39E. KayembeM
  • 5H. KyprianouM
  • 7O. MaammaM
  • 22M. PayeroM
  • 45S. MavididiM
  • 10M. BoaduF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DoumbiaF
  • 15K. DiattaM
  • 3S. CoulibalyD
  • 17Iker BravoF
  • 16M. BolaD
  • 26D. BachmannG
  • 9L. KjerrumgaardF
  • 29Branimir MlačićD
  • 21Amin NabizadaF
Coach: A. Dionisi

Form going into Cardiff vs Watford

Cardiff

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
  • W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
  • D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026

Watford

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
  • L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
  • W2-1Preston8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cardiff failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cardiff154652727018
20Watford154381323-1015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Watford

  • 14 January 2025Cardiff 1–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 29 December 2024Watford 1–2 CardiffChampionship
  • 3 February 2024Watford 0–1 CardiffChampionship
  • 7 October 2023Cardiff 1–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 19 April 2023Watford 1–3 CardiffChampionship

The full Cardiff vs Watford record →

Leading scorers: Cardiff and Watford

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

Watford

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cardiff beat Watford 5–1. The model had made a win for Cardiff its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jack Moylan (penalty) 11' for Cardiff, Jack Moylan 35' for Cardiff, Matthew Pollock (own goal) 41' for Cardiff, Ollie·Tanner 45+5' for Cardiff, Callum Robinson 85' for Cardiff, Hector Kyprianou 87' for Watford. On expected goals it finished 3.75–1.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cardiff a 35.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.1% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 42.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.1%, 5 points lower than before the match.

For Watford the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.7% going in: 48.7% after a win, 56.7% after a draw, 60.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cardiff v Watford has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Cardiff's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Cardiff win47%▲ +6
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Watford win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.