Burnley vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 2-2 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Burnley, 27% draw, 18% Charlton — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Burnley at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Charlton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 9J. VardyF
- 1M. WeißG
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 22O. SonneD
- 14C. RobertsD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 2K. RamsayD
- 5L. JonesD
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 17A. BellD
- 34O. SkippM
- 6C. CoventryM
- 20D. McNamaraM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 18I. MesíkD
- 33Micah MbickF
- 25W. MannionG
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 14S. CareyM
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 19M. AlliF
- 32A. MwambaD
- 23C. KelmanF
Form going into Burnley vs Charlton
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
Charlton
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Charlton
- 7 May 2016Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 19 December 2015Burnley 4–0 CharltonChampionship
- 22 March 2014Charlton 0–3 BurnleyChampionship
- 28 September 2013Burnley 3–0 CharltonChampionship
- 2 March 2013Charlton 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
The result against the call
Burnley and Charlton drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 55% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Bruun Larsen 36' for Burnley, Kayne Ramsay 50' for Charlton, Largie Ramazani 57' for Burnley, Ivan Mesik 90+6' for Charlton. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burnley a 18.7% chance to finish in the top four: 20.8% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.7%, 3 points lower than before the match.
For Charlton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.3% going in: 11.4% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.2%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Burnley v Charlton has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 49% / 29% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 55% / 27% / 18%: the biggest move is Burnley's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Burnley win55%▲ +6
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Charlton win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.