13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Birmingham vs Preston Championship prediction & result

St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Referee: Sam Allison
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Birmingham 4-0 Preston.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Birmingham, 26% draw, 20% Preston — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Birmingham99%Draw1%Preston0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
🔁Liam Gibbsout: Delano Burgzorg
⚽Liam Millarassist: Patrick Roberts
34'
⚽August Priskeassist: Alex Cochrane
45+2'
⚽August Priskeassist: Jay Stansfield
45+4'
45'
🔁Callum Langout: Andrew Moran
47'
Stanley Mills
Liam Millar
50'
56'
Stanley Mills
🔁Jhon Elmer Solís Romeroout: Max Bird
61'
🔁Liam Millarout: Demarai Gray
61'
61'
🔁Alfie Devineout: Lewis Gibson
🔁Patrick Robertsout: Carlos Vicente
75'
🔁Tomoki Iwataout: Taylor·Gardner Hickman
75'
⚽Demarai Grayassist: Max Bird
76'
🔁Jay Stansfieldout: Marvin Ducksch
84'

Match stats — Birmingham vs Preston

76%Possession24%
18Shots6
5On target1
6Corners3
2.28xG0.52

Goals against chances

Birmingham4 from 2.28 xGmore than the chances were worth
Preston0 from 0.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BeadleG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 16P. RobertsM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 9A. PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 18M. BirdM
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 23D. FryD
  • 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
  • 10D. GrayF
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 7Carlos VicenteF
  • 32L. VázquezF
Coach: C. Davies
Preston 3-4-2-1
  • 1D. IversenG
  • 24O. OffiahD
  • 14J. StoreyD
  • 16A. HughesD
  • 17S. MillsM
  • 27L. LeroyM
  • 15J. ThompsonM
  • 11T. SmallM
  • 7A. DevineM
  • 20L. GibbsM
  • 10C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 9J. ErabiF
  • 19L. GibsonD
  • 30G. GrybaF
  • 6L. LindsayD
  • 23A. MoranM
  • 21L. NichollsG
  • 2Pol ValentínD
  • 3A. VukčevićD
  • 37D. BurgzorgF
Coach: G. Alexander

Form going into Birmingham vs Preston

Birmingham

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
  • D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
  • D2-2Wolves6 September 2026

Preston

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
  • W2-1Blackburn5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Birmingham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
  • Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Birmingham158522814+1429
24Preston1522111330-178

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Preston

  • 22 April 2026Birmingham 2–1 PrestonChampionship
  • 21 October 2025Preston 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 1 April 2024Birmingham 1–0 PrestonChampionship
  • 19 September 2023Preston 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 21 January 2023Birmingham 1–2 PrestonChampionship

The full Birmingham vs Preston record →

Leading scorers: Birmingham and Preston

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

Preston

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham beat Preston 4–0. The model had made a win for Birmingham its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Liam Millar 34' for Birmingham, August Priske 45+2' for Birmingham, August Priske 45+4' for Birmingham, Demarai Gray 76' for Birmingham. Sent off: Stanley Mills (Preston) 56'. On expected goals it finished 2.28–0.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Birmingham a 15.6% chance to finish in the top four: 16.9% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.9%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For Preston the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 66.2% going in: 58.4% after a win, 64.5% after a draw, 69.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.2%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Birmingham v Preston has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Birmingham's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Birmingham win54%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Preston win20%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.