Bristol City vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 0-2 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bristol City, 25% draw, 44% Millwall — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Millwall
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sam TickleG
- 19George TannerD
- 16Rob DickieD
- 5Robert AtkinsonD
- 2Lisav Naif EissatD
- 12Jason KnightM
- 4Adam RandellM
- 7Yu HirakawaM
- 23Dominic BallardM
- 20Sam GreenwoodM
- 9Lorent TolajF
- 8Joe WilliamsM
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 17Jed WallaceM
- 18Emil Riis JacobsenF
- 11Sam BellF
- 40Brad CollinsG
- 38Noah EileD
- 27Gibson YahM
- 10Scott TwineM
- 1Lukas JensenG
- 18Ryan LeonardD
- 6Caleb TaylorD
- 5Jake CooperD
- 3Zak SturgeD
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 24Casper De NorreM
- 10Camiel NeghliM
- 11Femi AzeezF
- 19Josh CoburnF
- 7Tairyk ArconteF
- 22Kyrell LisbieF
- 25Luke CundleM
- 17Mark SykesM
- 16Daniel KellyM
- 13Lyndon DykesF
- 15Max CrocombeG
- 23Danny BatthD
- 12Elkan BaggottD
- 31Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Millwall
- 15 August 2026Bristol City 0–2 MillwallChampionship
- 29 December 2025Millwall 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 6 December 2025Bristol City 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 4 March 2025Millwall 0–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 17 August 2024Bristol City 4–3 MillwallChampionship
- 1 January 2024Bristol City 0–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Millwall
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Millwall
- L. Dykes4 goals
- T. Arconte3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.