7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Portsmouth vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Referee: Ben Speedie
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Portsmouth, 30% draw, 29% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portsmouth at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth0%Draw4%Stoke City96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tyrese Shade
6'
Ebou Adams
22'
29'
Junior Tchamadeu
Regan Poole
45+1'
55'
Róbert Boženík
57'
🔁Junior Tchamadeuout: Luca Bombino
57'
🔁Róbert Boženíkout: George Hirst
59'
⚽Jack Mcglynnassist: Luca Bombino
🔁Adrian Segecicout: Thomas Waddingham
65'
72'
Ethan Galbraith
🔁Jayden Meghomaout: Zak Swanson
75'
🔁Marlon Packout: Rocco Robert Shein
75'
77'
⚽Ben Wilmot
🔁Odin Baileyout: Josh Murphy
81'
🔁Abu Kamaraout: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
81'
86'
🔁Million·Manhoefout: Justin Devenny
Terry Devlin
90+4'

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Stoke City

55%Possession45%
8Shots4
3On target3
7Corners0
0.7xG0.88

Goals against chances

Portsmouth1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Stoke City2 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchmidG
  • 24T. DevlinD
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 55M. DiaD
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 38E. AdamsM
  • 7M. PackM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 11A. KamaraM
  • 17T. ShadeF
Substitutes
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenF
  • 32E. KennyM
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 6C. ShaughnessyD
  • 19R. SheinM
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 15F. UmehF
  • 20T. WaddinghamF
Coach: John Mousinho
Stoke City 3-4-3
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 22J. TchamadeuM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 7J. McGlynnF
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 42M. ManhoefF
Substitutes
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 6S. IngelssonM
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 20S. GallagherF
  • 13J. DevennyM
  • 21L. BombinoD
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
Coach: M. Robins

Form going into Portsmouth vs Stoke City

Portsmouth

Championship

  • W3-1Swansea3 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Burnley31 October 2026
  • W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026

Stoke City

Championship

  • W2-1away to Blackburn3 November 2026
  • W2-0Preston31 October 2026
  • D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Portsmouth went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Portsmouth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Portsmouth conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Stoke City went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Stoke City won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Stoke City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portsmouth156452018+222
3Stoke City159242418+629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Stoke City

  • 25 April 2026Stoke City 1–3 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 22 January 2025Portsmouth 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 2 October 2024Stoke City 6–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 27 August 2014Stoke City 3–0 PortsmouthLeague Cup

The full Portsmouth vs Stoke City record →

Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Stoke City

Portsmouth

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stoke City won 2–1 at Portsmouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Portsmouth at 41% and given a win for Stoke City 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tyrese Shade 6' for Portsmouth, Jack Mcglynn 59' for Stoke City, Ben Wilmot 77' for Stoke City. On expected goals it finished 0.70–0.88.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.