31 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka Premijer Liga prediction & result

Bilino Polje, Zenica
Referee: Nihad Ljajić, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Čelik 2-4 Borac Banja Luka.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Čelik, 25% draw, 55% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borac Banja Luka at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Čelik0%Draw3%Borac Banja Luka97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Faruk Gogićassist: Aldin Hrvanović
10'
14'
⚽Luka Juričićassist: Stefan Savić
⚽Samy Farajassist: Kenan Horić
28'
33'
⚽Abel Pascualassist: Luka Juričić
Andres Mohedano
45+3'
🔁Anes Mašićout: Dejan Vidić
66'
67'
⚽Stefan Savić
🔁Aldin Hrvanovićout: Nemanja Tomašević
73'
🔁Samy Farajout: Dževad Sijamija
73'
🔁Andres Mohedanoout: Harun Vardo
78'
🔁Marin Popovićout: Nedim Smajlović
78'
78'
🔁Matej Deketout: Anderson Esiti
86'
🔁Stefan Savićout: David Vuković
86'
🔁Ante Roguljićout: Omar Sijarić
90+2'
⚽Luka Juričić
90'
🔁Luka Juričićout: Karlo Perić

Line-ups

Čelik
  • 1Arman ŠutkovićG
  • 21Eldar SivacD
  • 17Albin OmićM
  • 4Kenan HorićD
  • 15Marin PopovićM
  • 28Joseph AmoahM
  • 8Andres MohedanoM
  • 14Aldin HrvanovićM
  • 88Faruk GogićM
  • 11Samy FarajM
  • 99Anes MašićF
Substitutes
  • 9Dejan VidićF
  • 27Nemanja TomaševićD
  • 7Dževad SijamijaF
  • 19Nedim SmajlovićD
  • 5Harun VardoM
  • 23Adi DurmoG
  • 12Vladimir SavićG
  • 6Amer MašetićD
  • 2Amer HodžićD
Coach: Bojan Regoje
Borac Banja Luka
  • 72Mladen JurkasG
  • 19Viktor RoganD
  • 4Branimir CipetićD
  • 3Abel PascualD
  • 16Sebastian HerreraD
  • 12Amer HirošM
  • 18Miloš JojićM
  • 44Ante RoguljićM
  • 89Matej DeketF
  • 77Stefan SavićM
  • 7Luka JuričićF
Substitutes
  • 13Anderson EsitiM
  • 17Omar SijarićM
  • 10David VukovićM
  • 9Karlo PerićF
  • 1Damjan SiskovskiG
  • 20Erik RiđanD
  • 2Bart MeijersD
  • 22Ivan KukavicaM
  • 23Stojan VranješM
Coach: Vinko Marinovic

Form going into Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka

Čelik

Premijer Liga

  • D0-0away to Siroki Brijeg24 October 2026
  • L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
  • D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026

Borac Banja Luka

Premijer Liga

  • W2-0Sloga Doboj25 October 2026
  • W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Čelik132561420-611
2Borac Banja Luka1210112710+1731

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka

  • 23 August 2026Borac Banja Luka 2–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 9 February 2025Borac Banja Luka 3–0 ČelikCup
  • 1 December 2019Čelik 1–2 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
  • 1 September 2019Borac Banja Luka 3–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 21 April 2018Čelik 1–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Čelik and Borac Banja Luka

Čelik

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hrvanović22
  • Anes Mašić11

Borac Banja Luka

GoalsAssists

  • L. Juričić62
  • A. Roguljić20
  • A. Hiroš12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Borac Banja Luka won 4–2 at Čelik. The model had made a win for Borac Banja Luka its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Faruk Gogić 10' for Čelik, Luka Juričić 14' for Borac Banja Luka, Samy Faraj 28' for Čelik, Abel Pascual 33' for Borac Banja Luka, Stefan Savić 67' for Borac Banja Luka, Luka Juričić 90+2' for Borac Banja Luka.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Čelik a 21.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 14.4% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Borac Banja Luka the question was the chance to win the league, 39.4% going in: 42.6% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.6%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Čelik v Borac Banja Luka has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 20% / 25% / 55%: the biggest move is Borac Banja Luka's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Čelik win20%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Borac Banja Luka win55%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.