25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result

Groupama Arena, Budapest
Referee: M. Rusz
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Ferencvarosi TC 5-0 MTK Budapest.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Ferencvarosi TC, 23% draw, 19% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ferencvarosi TC at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ferencvarosi TC99%Draw1%MTK Budapest0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Habib Maïga
5'
⚽Habib Maïgaassist: Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz
15'
⚽Bamidele Isa Yusufassist: Veljko Birmančević
17'
⚽Habib Maïgaassist: Attila Osváth
20'
40'
🔁Ilia Beriashviliout: Benedek Varju
45'
🔁Gyorgy Komaromiout: Á Nyers
•Toon Raemaekers
48'
⚽Kristoffer Zachariassen (pen)
52'
🔁Habib Maïgaout: Ádám Nagy
58'
🔁Bamidele Isa Yusufout: Lenny Joseph
58'
60'
Mihály Kata
Mariano Gómez
61'
⚽marius corbuassist: Kristoffer Zachariassen
68'
🔁Ádám Madarászout: Ádám Gyula Bagi
72'
🔁Kristoffer Zachariassenout: Jonathan Levi
73'
73'
🔁Á. Zuborout: István Bognár
73'
🔁Mark Kerezsi Zalanout: Kristof Hinora
73'
🔁Adrian Zeljkovicout: Dániel Varga
🔁Veljko Birmančevićout: Daniel Arzani
81'
Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz
90'

Match stats — Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest

70%Possession30%
26Shots4
10On target0
10Corners1
2.88xG0.19

Goals against chances

Ferencvarosi TC5 from 2.88 xGmore than the chances were worth
MTK Budapest0 from 0.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 14A. OsváthD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 20CaduD
  • 80H. MaïgaM
  • 72Ádám MadarászM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 7V. BirmančevićM
  • 11B. YusufF
Substitutes
  • 15D. ArzaniF
  • 5G. ZohoréD
  • 1Á. VargaG
  • 18Á. BagiF
  • 75L. JosephF
  • 10J. LeviF
  • 76K. LisztesF
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 54O. NagyD
Coach: B. Borbely
MTK Budapest 4-4-2
  • 43Bence VargaG
  • 26V. ArmalasD
  • 4I. BeriashviliD
  • 55S. RadićD
  • 13M. TimoteusD
  • 11G. JurekM
  • 6M. KataM
  • 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
  • 77G. KomáromiM
  • 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
  • 8A. G. ZuborF
Substitutes
  • 9M. KlauszF
  • 17K. HinoraM
  • 24T. FadgyasG
  • 5D. HorváthD
  • 45D. VargaM
  • 37Adam NyersF
  • 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
  • 10I. BognárM
  • 2B. VarjuD
Coach: Máté Pinezits

Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC

NB I

  • D1-1away to Kisvarda FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026

MTK Budapest

NB I

  • W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ferencvarosi TC126512210+1223
10MTK Budapest133461827-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest

  • 23 February 2026MTK Budapest 1–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 1 November 2025Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 MTK BudapestNB I
  • 26 July 2025MTK Budapest 1–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 27 April 2025MTK Budapest 2–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 23 April 2025Ferencvarosi TC 3–1 MTK BudapestMagyar Kupa
  • 2 February 2025Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 MTK BudapestNB I

Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Yusuf41
  • K. Zachariassen41
  • M. Corbu31

MTK Budapest

GoalsAssists

  • G. Jurek71
  • Zalán Márk Kerezsi43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ferencvarosi TC beat MTK Budapest 5–0. The model had made a win for Ferencvarosi TC its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Habib Maïga 15' for Ferencvarosi TC, Bamidele Isa Yusuf 17' for Ferencvarosi TC, Habib Maïga 20' for Ferencvarosi TC, Kristoffer Zachariassen (penalty) 52' for Ferencvarosi TC, marius corbu 68' for Ferencvarosi TC. On expected goals it finished 2.88–0.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ferencvarosi TC a 68.7% chance to finish in the top three: 71.9% after a win, 65.8% after a draw, 61.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.9%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For MTK Budapest the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 25.5% going in: 18.3% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.