25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza NB I prediction & result

Pancho Arena
Referee: P. Antal
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Puskas Academy 1-2 Nyiregyhaza.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Puskas Academy, 25% draw, 20% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Puskas Academy at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Puskas Academy0%Draw6%Nyiregyhaza94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Rocco Žiković
⚽Palkó Dárdaiassist: András Németh
20'
32'
⚽Balázs Mannerassist: Balint Katona
45'
🔁Sandro Ingolitschout: Zsombor Hös
53'
⚽Marko Kvasinaassist: Nemanja Antonov
🔁Laros Duarteout: Michael okeke
54'
🔁Urho Nissiläout: Z. Varga
54'
•Bendegúz Farkas
59'
Michael okeke
66'
72'
🔁Balint Katonaout: Marko Regža
75'
Balázs Manner
🔁Martin Kernout: Mikael Soisalo
75'
🔁Palkó Dárdaiout: Bence vekony
75'
🔁Dániel Lukácsout: Zsolt Krupa
75'
80'
🔁Nemanja Antonovout: aron alaxal
Zsolt Krupa
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Balázs Mannerout: Csaba Máté

Match stats — Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza

44%Possession56%
9Shots10
4On target5
5Corners6
0.83xG1.27

Goals against chances

Puskas Academy1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nyiregyhaza2 from 1.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Puskas Academy 4-4-2
  • 72B. LehoczkiG
  • 88B. FarkasD
  • 96R. OrjánD
  • 21G. HarutyunyanD
  • 25Z. NagyD
  • 10P. DárdaiM
  • 6L. DuarteM
  • 74M. KernM
  • 8D. LukacsM
  • 90A. NémethF
  • 16U. NissiläF
Substitutes
  • 1T. MarkekG
  • 80Z. KrupaM
  • 4Michael OkekeM
  • 24B. PálD
  • 33B. Ormonde-OttewillD
  • 20M. SoisaloF
  • 66Z. VargaM
  • 18B. VekonyM
Coach: L. Babó
Nyiregyhaza 4-4-2
  • 57M. DalaG
  • 24V. JovanovD
  • 39R. ŽikovićD
  • 31L. KatonaD
  • 25S. IngolitschD
  • 10B. MannerM
  • 12M. KovácsM
  • 70M. KatonaM
  • 7N. AntonovM
  • 55B. KatonaF
  • 9M. KvasinaF
Substitutes
  • 66B. BenczenleitnerD
  • 29J. BatoumF
  • 99Á. AlaxaiD
  • 8Zsombor HosM
  • 74D. KaczvinszkiD
  • 26Ž. MedvedF
  • 22M. MolnarG
  • 17C. MateM
  • 23M. RegžaF
Coach: Tamás Bódog

Form going into Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza

Puskas Academy

NB I

  • W1-0away to Ujpest17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026

Nyiregyhaza

NB I

  • L0-1Budapest Honved17 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Puskas Academy138051815+324
12Nyiregyhaza133371424-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza

  • 1 March 2026Puskas Academy 1–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 9 November 2025Nyiregyhaza 1–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
  • 3 August 2025Puskas Academy 3–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 29 March 2025Nyiregyhaza 0–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
  • 25 February 2025Nyiregyhaza 1–0 Puskas AcademyMagyar Kupa
  • 23 November 2024Nyiregyhaza 0–3 Puskas AcademyNB I

Leading scorers: Puskas Academy and Nyiregyhaza

Puskas Academy

GoalsAssists

  • A. Németh52
  • P. Dárdai32

Nyiregyhaza

GoalsAssists

  • M. Kvasina41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nyiregyhaza won 2–1 at Puskas Academy. The model had leaned towards a win for Puskas Academy at 55% and given a win for Nyiregyhaza 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Palkó Dárdai 20' for Puskas Academy, Balázs Manner 32' for Nyiregyhaza, Marko Kvasina 53' for Nyiregyhaza. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puskas Academy a 59.2% chance to finish in the top three: 64.2% after a win, 54.8% after a draw, 50.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.6%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

For Nyiregyhaza the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 57.8% going in: 48.7% after a win, 58.2% after a draw, 61.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.7%, 9.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Puskas Academy v Nyiregyhaza has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Puskas Academy's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Puskas Academy win55%▲ +9
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Nyiregyhaza win20%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.