3 November 2026, 12:15 UTC

Port FC vs Beijing Guoan AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

True BG Stadium, Patum Thani
Referee: Salman Ahmad Falahi
Full time7 – 4

Final score: Port FC 7-4 Beijing Guoan.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Port FC, 24% draw, 44% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beijing Guoan at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Chadrac Akolo
⚽Jude Soonsup-Bellassist: Bordin Phala
16'
⚽Jude Soonsup-Bellassist: Chaiyaphon Otton
19'
23'
⚽Dawhan Fran Urano da Purificação Oliveiraassist: Zhang Xizhe
⚽Bordin Phala
29'
37'
⚽Noboru Shimura (OG)
41'
⚽Dawhan Fran Urano da Purificação Oliveira
45'
Bai Yang
🔁Noboru Shimuraout: Peeradol Chamrasamee
45'
45'
🔁Bai Yangout: Deng Jiefu
54'
•Guilherme Ramos
58'
Guilherme Ramos
63'
🔁Jeremy Dudziakout: Sai Erjini'ao
63'
🔁Zhang Xizheout: Yue Tze-Nam
63'
🔁Chadrac Akoloout: Zhang Yuning
🔁Peerawat Akkratumout: Suphanan Bureerat
65'
🔁Sittha Boonlhaout: Jakkaphan Kaewprom
65'
🔁Seksan Ratreeout: Lucas Tocantins
71'
🔁Worachit Kanitsribumphenout: Teerasak Poeiphimai
71'
77'
🔁Béni Nkololoout: Cao Yongjing
⚽Bordin Phala
78'
⚽Bordin Phala
81'
•Jude Soonsup-Bell
86'
⚽Teerasak Poeiphimaiassist: Bordin Phala
90+1'
⚽Teerasak Poeiphimaiassist: Jakkaphan Kaewprom
90+5'

Match stats — Port FC vs Beijing Guoan

45%Possession55%
20Shots8
14On target3
6Corners0
2.63xG1.28

Goals against chances

Port FC7 from 2.63 xGmore than the chances were worth
Beijing Guoan4 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Port FC 4-2-3-1
  • 93M. FalkesgaardG
  • 36P. AkkratumD
  • 28E. SviatchenkoD
  • 20Marcel ScaleseD
  • 25C. OttonD
  • 33N. ShimuraM
  • 47S. BoonlhaM
  • 17S. RatreeM
  • 22W. KanitsribumphenF
  • 10B. PhalaF
  • 18Jude Jacob Soonsup-BellF
Substitutes
  • 15M. BihrD
  • 24J. KaewpromM
  • 1S. YosG
  • 19Rui CostaF
  • 5P. ChamrasameeM
  • 27Lucas TocantinsF
  • 4S. BureeratD
  • 11BrunoF
  • 9Ruan RibeiroF
Coach: Bozidar Bandovic
Beijing Guoan 4-4-2
  • 34Hou SenG
  • 27Wang GangD
  • 25U. SpajićD
  • 5Guilherme RamosD
  • 26Bai YangD
  • 28J. DudziakD
  • 8A. KonteM
  • 23DawhanM
  • 10Zhang XizheM
  • 20B. NkololoF
  • 77C. AkoloF
Substitutes
  • 47Jiefu DengD
  • 30Fan ShuangjieD
  • 31Liu ShaoziyangG
  • 21Yue Tze NamD
  • 24Abduhamit AbdugheniD
  • 11Lin LiangmingF
  • 7SerginhoM
  • 9Zhang YuningF
  • 37Cao YongjingF
Coach: N. Montgomery

Form going into Port FC vs Beijing Guoan

Port FC

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L0-3away to Johor Darul Takzim FC27 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Kashiwa Reysol14 October 2026
  • L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026

Beijing Guoan

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D2-2Jeonbuk Motors27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Buriram United13 October 2026
  • W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Port FC4103914-53
9Beijing Guoan4211101007

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Port FC and Beijing Guoan

Port FC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Phala32
  • Jude Jacob Soonsup-Bell20

Beijing Guoan

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Port FC beat Beijing Guoan 7–4. The model had leaned towards a win for Beijing Guoan at 44% and given a win for Port FC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Chadrac Akolo 5' for Beijing Guoan, Jude Soonsup-Bell 16' for Port FC, Jude Soonsup-Bell 19' for Port FC, Dawhan Fran Urano da Purificação Oliveira 23' for Beijing Guoan, Bordin Phala 29' for Port FC, Noboru Shimura (own goal) 37' for Beijing Guoan, Dawhan Fran Urano da Purificação Oliveira 41' for Beijing Guoan, Bordin Phala 78' for Port FC, Bordin Phala 81' for Port FC, Teerasak Poeiphimai 90+1' for Port FC, Teerasak Poeiphimai 90+5' for Port FC. Sent off: Guilherme Ramos (Beijing Guoan) 58'. On expected goals it finished 2.63–1.28.

How the call on Port FC v Beijing Guoan has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 24% / 44%: the biggest move is Port FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Port FC win32%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Beijing Guoan win44%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.