3 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Basra Sports City, Basra
Referee: Asker Nadjafaliev
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Esteghlal FC 1-0 Al Shamal.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Esteghlal FC, 22% draw, 13% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Esteghlal FC at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Esteghlal FC6%Draw92%Al Shamal2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+2'
Youssouf Sabaly
53'
Riyad Mahrez
58'
Nassim Benaissa
🔁Esmaeil Gholizadehout: Mohammadhossein Eslami
74'
🔁Saeed Saharkhizanout: Mohammad Reza Azadi
74'
84'
🔁Nassim Benaissaout: Ahmed Suhail
87'
🔁Wesley Saïdout: Omar Ali
⚽Jasir Asaniassist: Mohammadhossein Eslami
90+1'
🔁Jasir Asaniout: Rustam Ashurmatov
90+4'
90+4'
Youssouf Sabaly

Match stats — Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal

46%Possession54%
12Shots12
6On target3
2Corners5
1.2xG0.57

Goals against chances

Esteghlal FC1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Shamal0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Esteghlal FC 3-4-3
  • 76H. Far AbbasiG
  • 6S. FallahD
  • 4R. CheshmiD
  • 33A. AghasiD
  • 2Saleh HardaniM
  • 10J. MasharipovM
  • 8A. RazzaghiniaM
  • 27H. GoudarziM
  • 7J. AsaniF
  • 11S. SaharkhizanF
  • 87E. SaitmuratovF
Substitutes
  • 15A. ZamaniM
  • 88M. AhmadiM
  • 5R. AshurmatovD
  • 9M. AzadiF
  • 80M. EslamiM
  • 18A. ZoleikhaeiD
  • 40Mohammadali Nabizadeh Chamaz KotiG
  • 60S. HosseinifarG
  • 26Mohammad Mehdi Ghayedi HeydariM
Coach: Sohrab Bakhtiarizadeh
Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 20Y. SabalyD
  • 23Michel TermaniniD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 28N. BenaïssaD
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 16F. BaisM
  • 26R. MahrezM
  • 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
  • 22W. SaïdM
  • 11B. BounedjahF
Substitutes
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
  • 2Moufak AwadD
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 14Omar AliF
  • 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
Coach: David Prats

Form going into Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal

Esteghlal FC

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Al-Gharafa12 October 2026
  • W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026

Al Shamal

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W3-1Al-Hilal27 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Tractor Sazi12 October 2026
  • D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Esteghlal FC430163+39
8Al Shamal412143+15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Esteghlal FC and Al Shamal

Esteghlal FC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Asani31

Al Shamal

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Esteghlal FC beat Al Shamal 1–0. The model had made a win for Esteghlal FC its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Jasir Asani 90+1' for Esteghlal FC. Sent off: Youssouf Sabaly (Al Shamal) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.57.

How the call on Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 63% / 23% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 65% / 22% / 13%: the biggest move is Esteghlal FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Esteghlal FC win65%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Al Shamal win13%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.