31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Timsah Park, Bursa
Referee: Direnc Tonusluoglu
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Bursaspor 3-0 Bandırmaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Bursaspor, 27% draw, 19% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bursaspor at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bursaspor99%Draw1%Bandırmaspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Tosin Kehinde
⚽Halil Akbunarassist: Tural Bayramov
7'
⚽Lewis Bakerassist: Amine Boutrah
12'
⚽Lewis Bakerassist: Halil Akbunar
23'
39'
Lucas Lima
Lewis Baker
41'
45'
🔁Burak Bekaroğluout: Enes Cinemre
60'
🔁Muhammed Gümüşkayaout: Emirhan Ayhan
60'
🔁Tosin Kehindeout: Amidou Badji
60'
🔁Kerem Dönertaşout: Mehmet Eray Ozbek
🔁Juergen Elitimout: Hüseyin Maldar
67'
🔁Halil Akbunarout: Tayfun Aydogan
68'
🔁Soner Aydoğduout: Eyüp Akcan
77'
86'
🔁Gianni Brunoout: Recep Dilek
🔁Amine Boutrahout: Zeki Yavru
88'
🔁Lewis Bakerout: Emir Kaan Gultekin
88'

Match stats — Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor

56%Possession44%
14Shots10
7On target3
10Corners4
1.15xG0.47

Goals against chances

Bursaspor3 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bandırmaspor0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bursaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 77R. BerişbekD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 8S. AydoğduM
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 7H. AkbunarM
  • 42L. BakerM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 66H. MaldarD
  • 9E. GültekinF
  • 93B. GökD
  • 24A. BabacanD
  • 52T. AydoğanM
  • 34E. AkcanM
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 18Z. YavruD
  • 57B. YayıkcıD
Coach: M. Er
Bandırmaspor 3-4-3
  • 16A. AlkanG
  • 86B. BekaroğluD
  • 34Enes AydınD
  • 14Y. KocatürkD
  • 22A. ÜlgenM
  • 23K. DonertasM
  • 8D. LiçoM
  • 6Lucas LimaM
  • 10M. GümüşkayaM
  • 11T. KehindeF
  • 9G. BrunoF
Substitutes
  • 17Emirhan AyhanM
  • 29A. BadjiF
  • 99F. BekleviçG
  • 3A. BilerD
  • 90Recep Yalın DilekF
  • 65C. GurselD
  • 19Yasin MidilicD
  • 20E. ÇinemreM
  • 21E. ÖzbekM
Coach: Ertuğrul Arslan

Form going into Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor

Bursaspor

1. Lig

  • W4-2away to Keçiörengücü25 October 2026
  • W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026

Bandırmaspor

1. Lig

  • L1-2Iğdır FK24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
  • D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832
15Bandırmaspor143561717014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor

  • 14 May 2022Bandırmaspor 4–2 Bursaspor1. Lig
  • 19 December 2021Bursaspor 0–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 15 April 2021Bursaspor 2–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 8 December 2020Bandırmaspor 1–2 Bursaspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Bandırmaspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Bruno50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bursaspor beat Bandırmaspor 3–0. The model had made a win for Bursaspor its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Halil Akbunar 7' for Bursaspor, Lewis Baker 12' for Bursaspor, Lewis Baker 23' for Bursaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bursaspor a 54.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 58.7% after a win, 50.3% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.7%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For Bandırmaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 5.7% going in: 2.5% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bursaspor v Bandırmaspor has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 48% / 30% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 27% / 19%: the biggest move is Bursaspor's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Bursaspor win54%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Bandırmaspor win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.