31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor Süper Lig prediction & result

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Referee: Batuhan Kolak, Türkiye
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Kocaelispor 0-0 Rizespor.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Kocaelispor, 29% draw, 27% Rizespor — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kocaelispor at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kocaelispor4%Draw93%Rizespor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Susoho
16'
U. Yildiz
30'
44'
G. Borrelli
46'
🔁A. Mebudeout: A. Kutucu
46'
🔁G. Borrelliout: A. Sowe
🔁G. Sousaout: D. Agyei
63'
🔁M. Susohoout: E. Bilim
63'
66'
🔁E. Bulutout: V. Mihaila
70'
M. Sagnan
🔁M. Bakuout: M. Altunbas
75'
🔁R. Rivasout: M. Cinan
75'
Show
80'
80'
🔁Q. Laciout: T. Antalyali
88'
🔁I. Olawoyinout: D. Varesanovic
89'
V. Mihaila
🔁B. Kutluout: T. Gulliksen
90+1'
E. Ortakaya
90+4'

Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Rizespor

50%Possession50%
14Shots17
4On target4
7Corners4
0.59xG1.24

Goals against chances

Kocaelispor0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Rizespor0 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kocaelispor 4-3-3
  • 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
  • 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
  • 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
  • 5Emir OrtakayaD
  • 99Rigoberto RivasD
  • 10Berkan KutluM
  • 14ShowM
  • 20Mahamadou SusohoM
  • 11Gonçalo SousaF
  • 97Florian AyéF
  • 32Makana BakuF
Substitutes
  • 27Ege BilimM
  • 7Dan AgyeiF
  • 3Muharrem CinanD
  • 26Metehan AltunbaşF
  • 8Tobias Fjeld GulliksenM
  • 23Onurcan PiriG
  • 41Onur ÖztongaD
  • 6Matej MaglicaD
  • 75Tayfur BingölD
Rizespor 4-1-4-1
  • 30Zafer GörgenG
  • 54Mithat PalaD
  • 21Siaka BakayokoD
  • 93Modibo SagnanD
  • 17Zakaria ArissD
  • 6Moussa DiakitéM
  • 11Adedire MebudeM
  • 10Ibrahim OlawoyinM
  • 20Qazim LaciM
  • 99Emrecan BulutM
  • 29Gennaro BorrelliF
Substitutes
  • 23Ahmed KutucuF
  • 9Ali SoweF
  • 7Valentin MihăilăF
  • 14Taylan AntalyalıM
  • 8Dal VarešanovićM
  • 97Efe DoğanG
  • 37Taha ŞahinD
  • 4Attila MocsiD
  • 5Tayyip Talha SanuçD

Form going into Kocaelispor vs Rizespor

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig

  • W2-1away to Alanyaspor23 October 2026
  • L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026

Rizespor

Süper Lig

  • L3-4Trabzonspor26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
  • L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Kocaelispor11614139+419
11Rizespor114251316-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor

  • 20 February 2026Rizespor 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • 21 September 2025Kocaelispor 1–1 RizesporSüper Lig
  • 18 July 2021Rizespor 2–3 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Rizespor

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kutlu51

Rizespor

GoalsAssists

  • A. Sowe40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kocaelispor and Rizespor drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Kocaelispor at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rizespor a 17.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.4% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 20.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.9%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kocaelispor v Rizespor has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Kocaelispor's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kocaelispor win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Rizespor win27%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.