31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Referee: Burak Demirkiran
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Pendikspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 22% Pendikspor — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fatih Karagümrük at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fatih Karagümrük0%Draw5%Pendikspor95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Manolis Siopis
10'
Cenk Tosun
22'
🔁Manolis Siopisout: Marius Tresor Doh
26'
45'
🔁Emrah Başsanout: damir hrelja
50'
⚽damir hreljaassist: Hakan Yesil
Yaya Onogo
55'
56'
Jonson Clarke-Harris
🔁J. Esenout: Ramazan Civelek
57'
72'
🔁Jonson Clarke-Harrisout: Muhamed Kiprit
74'
Vinko Soldo
🔁Yaya Onogoout: Tiago Cukur
74'
🔁Candan Baskaleout: Çağtay Kurukalıp
74'
77'
🔁Hakan Yesilout: Y. Sönmez
Anil Cinar
78'
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya
80'
90'
🔁Thuramout: F. Doğan

Match stats — Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor

61%Possession39%
13Shots13
4On target3
5Corners4
1.47xG1.05

Goals against chances

Fatih Karagümrük0 from 1.47 xGless than the chances were worth
Pendikspor1 from 1.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SilvestriG
  • 25M. SarıkayaD
  • 4D. BiraschiD
  • 28A. ÇınarD
  • 21Candan BaskaleD
  • 19Y. OnogoM
  • 20M. SiopisM
  • 26Traore AhmedM
  • 5E. AkbabaM
  • 41J. EsenM
  • 9C. TosunF
Substitutes
  • 33Ç. KurukalıpD
  • 8D. ToközM
  • 6R. YalçınM
  • 11T. ÇukurF
  • 23B. ŞenG
  • 22R. CivelekM
  • 14Marius Tresor DohM
  • 24B. ErsoyM
  • 27Muhammed KadiogluD
Pendikspor 4-1-4-1
  • 78E. DadükG
  • 23E. GökçeD
  • 6V. SoldoD
  • 4A. ÖzkayaD
  • 17S. AbifadeD
  • 41M. ÖzdemirM
  • 7E. BaşsanM
  • 60B. KaradenizM
  • 14H. YeşilM
  • 34ThuramM
  • 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 66F. DoğanD
  • 88D. HreljaF
  • 99M. KipritF
  • 30E. KoyuncuG
  • 28E. PekdemirM
  • 20Y. SönmezM
  • 5B. SülüngözD
  • 77A. UğurM
  • 61O. ÇakıroğluF
Coach: M. Şahin

Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor

Fatih Karagümrük

1. Lig

  • W2-0away to Sarıyer24 October 2026
  • L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026

Pendikspor

1. Lig

  • D2-2Kayserispor25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bursaspor19 October 2026
  • L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Fatih Karagümrük145452016+419
16Pendikspor143561525-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor

  • 4 May 2025Pendikspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
  • 4 January 2025Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Pendikspor1. Lig
  • 10 February 2024Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 PendiksporSüper Lig
  • 23 September 2023Pendikspor 1–1 Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
  • 24 March 2019Pendikspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
  • 4 November 2018Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 Pendikspor2. Lig

Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor

Fatih Karagümrük

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pešić52

Pendikspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pendikspor won 1–0 at Fatih Karagümrük. The model had leaned towards a win for Fatih Karagümrük at 50% and given a win for Pendikspor 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: damir hrelja 50' for Pendikspor. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pendikspor a 42.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 33.1% after a win, 41.0% after a draw, 46.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Fatih Karagümrük's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Fatih Karagümrük win50%▼ −7
  2. Draw28%▲ +3
  3. Pendikspor win22%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.