Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-2 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Fenerbahçe, 18% draw, 15% Göztepe — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Fenerbahçe at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37Milan ŠkriniarD
- 21Kojo Peprah OppongD
- 22Levent MercanD
- 91N'Golo KantéM
- 6Mattéo GuendouziM
- 70Oğuz AydınM
- 17İrfan Can KahveciM
- 7Kerem AktürkoğluM
- 9Romelu LukakuF
- 18Mert MüldürD
- 45Dorgeles NeneF
- 19Vedat MuriqiF
- 14Yiğit Efe DemirD
- 13Tarık ÇetinG
- 34Mert GünokG
- 77Ognjen MimovićD
- 8Mert Hakan YandaşM
- 28Bartuğ ElmazM
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 19Noah Sonko SundbergD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 20Novatus MiroshiM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 39JandersonF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 3AllanD
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 6Alex MatosM
- 17Gökdeniz BayrakdarF
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Galatasaray26 October 2026
- W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
Göztepe
Süper Lig
- W2-0Çorum FK25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kocaelispor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Fenerbahçe and Göztepe have met 7 times in the records we hold, Fenerbahçe has won 2 of them to Göztepe's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
Göztepe won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 |
| Göztepe | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Süper LigFenerbahçe 1–2 Göztepe - 25 Jan 2026
Süper LigFenerbahçe 1–1 Göztepe - 16 Aug 2025
Süper LigGöztepe 0–0 Fenerbahçe - 26 Jan 2025
Süper LigFenerbahçe 3–2 Göztepe - 17 Aug 2024
Süper LigGöztepe 2–2 Fenerbahçe - 16 Apr 2022
Süper LigFenerbahçe 2–0 Göztepe - 29 Nov 2021
Süper LigGöztepe 1–1 Fenerbahçe
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Fenerbahçe's attack rates 48% above Göztepe's, and Fenerbahçe concede 25% fewer than Göztepe. That gives Fenerbahçe the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.35 | 0.89 |
| Göztepe | 0.91 | 1.19 |
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Göztepe
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood62
- İ. Kahveci53
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan71
- André Henrique41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Göztepe won 2–1 at Fenerbahçe. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 67% and given a win for Göztepe 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: M. Guendouzi 45+1' for Fenerbahçe, S. Armstrong 76' for Göztepe, Andre Henrique 78' for Göztepe. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fenerbahçe a 79.8% chance to finish in the top four: 81.9% after a win, 75.6% after a draw, 72.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.8%, 7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fenerbahçe v Göztepe has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 70% / 17% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 67% / 18% / 15%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Fenerbahçe win67%▼ −3
- Draw18%▲ +1
- Göztepe win15%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.