7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Rouen vs Bastia Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Rouen 2-0 Bastia.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Rouen, 26% draw, 21% Bastia — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rouen at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rouen99%Draw1%Bastia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
G. Akueson
🔁B. Camaraout: S. Traore
23'
I. Karamoko
28'
36'
C. Melieres
M. Borne
45+4'
⚽S. Diabyassist: G. Egny
50'
C. Bassin
52'
⚽M. Tchokounteassist: N. Sommer
62'
63'
🔁F. Fallout: H. Makalou
63'
🔁R. Beliandjouout: M. Boumaaoui
63'
🔁A. Zaouaiout: D. Tamba
72'
🔁L. Belalout: M. Petrignani
73'
🔁E. Garnierout: I. Monnier
🔁M. Tchokounteout: W. Pacius
78'
🔁S. Diabyout: J. Viana
79'
J. Viana
82'
🔁J. Gasparout: Z. Lamgahez
90'
J. Viana
90+2'
J. Viana
90+2'
90+2'
S. Contena

Form going into Rouen vs Bastia

Rouen

Ligue 3

  • W2-1Concarneau31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Gobelins17 October 2026
  • W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 013 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026

Bastia

Ligue 3

  • W2-0Quevilly31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Concarneau17 October 2026
  • D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rouen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rouen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rouen had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
  • Bastia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bastia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Rouen12822229+1326
13Bastia124351014-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rouen vs Bastia

  • 22 July 2023Rouen 0–2 BastiaFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Rouen beat Bastia 2–0. The model had made a win for Rouen its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Diaby 50' for Rouen, M. Tchokounte 62' for Rouen. Sent off: I. Karamoko (Rouen) 28', J. Viana (Rouen) 90+2'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rouen a 75.8% chance to finish in the top six: 79.8% after a win, 74.3% after a draw, 68.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.8%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Bastia the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 13.1% going in: 19.2% after a win, 12.8% after a draw, 10.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.3%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rouen v Bastia has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Rouen's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Rouen win53%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Bastia win21%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.