30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Cagliari vs Inter Serie A prediction & result

Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Cagliari 0-1 Inter.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Cagliari, 28% draw, 37% Inter — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Inter at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cagliari0%Draw5%Inter95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽H. Calhanogluassist: N. Barella
14'
Manuel Akanji
Alessandro Deiola
56'
🔁H. Winksout: R. Kofler
57'
🔁J. Fazziniout: A. Fadera
57'
🔁P. Mendyout: Kevin
57'
65'
🔁H. Calhanogluout: P. Zielinski
65'
🔁P. Sucicout: C. Jones
65'
🔁F. Espositoout: M. Thuram
68'
🔁M. Akanjiout: J. Stones
🔁D. Maldiniout: G. Borrelli
78'
81'
🔁Luis Henriqueout: Y. Bisseck
🔁A. Deiolaout: R. Ciervo
83'
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi
88'

Match stats — Cagliari vs Inter

35%Possession65%
10Shots30
0On target7
8Corners6
0.45xG3.8

Goals against chances

Cagliari0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Inter1 from 3.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cagliari 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2J. PedroD
  • 14A. DeiolaD
  • 15J. RodriguezD
  • 33A. ObertD
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 6H. WinksM
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 70D. MaldiniM
  • 10J. FazziniM
  • 31P. MendyF
Substitutes
  • 23B. RadunovicG
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 24G. AurelioD
  • 21N. CavuotiM
  • 32I. SulevM
  • 27J. LitetaM
  • 30A. AkarakiriM
  • 17M. FeliciF
  • 22R. KoflerD
Coach: Fabio Pisacane
Inter 3-5-2
  • 1J. MartinezG
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 11Luis HenriqueM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 20H. CalhanogluM
  • 8P. SucicM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 10L. MartinezF
  • 94F. EspositoF
Substitutes
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 6J. StonesD
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 7P. ZielinskiM
  • 22H. MkhitaryanM
  • 21C. JonesM
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 5A. StankovicM
Coach: Cristian Chivu

Form going into Cagliari vs Inter

Cagliari

  • W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026

Inter

  • W4-1Monza22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Cagliari430142+29
2Inter4400136+712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Inter

  • 30 August 2026Cagliari 0–1 InterSerie A
  • 17 April 2026Inter 3–0 CagliariSerie A
  • 27 September 2025Cagliari 0–2 InterSerie A
  • 12 April 2025Inter 3–1 CagliariSerie A
  • 28 December 2024Cagliari 0–3 InterSerie A
  • 14 April 2024Inter 2–2 CagliariSerie A

Leading scorers: Cagliari and Inter

Cagliari

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Inter

  • F. Esposito2 goals1 assists
  • M. Thuram2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.