30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Randers FC vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result

Cepheus Park, Randers
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Randers FC 2-1 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Randers FC, 30% draw, 36% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Randers FC95%Draw5%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Elies Mahmoudassist: Mike Themsen
21'
⚽Mike Themsenassist: Kasper Junker
28'
46'
🔁Markus Solbakkenout: Janni Serra
55'
Kristian Arnstad
61'
🔁James Bogereout: Tobias Bech
61'
🔁Rasmus Carstensenout: Jacob Andersen
63'
⚽Janni Serraassist: Sebastian Jørgensen
🔁Kasper Junkerout: Mohamed Sankoh
63'
Sabil Hansen
70'
🔁John Björkengrenout: Oliver Jones
71'
🔁Martin Sjølstadout: Axel Henriksson
71'
•Axel Henriksson
78'
Axel Henriksson
79'
🔁Elies Mahmoudout: Hector Høyrup
83'
83'
🔁Colin Röslerout: Stefen Tchamche
87'
Stefen Tchamche
Mike Themsen
88'
Mohamed Sankoh
90+4'
90'
🔁Eric Kahlout: Mouhammade Camara

Match stats — Randers FC vs Aarhus

41%Possession59%
8Shots17
5On target6
1Corners5
1.1xG1.97

Goals against chances

Randers FC2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aarhus1 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Randers FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Paul IzzoG
  • 24Sabil HansenD
  • 3Daniel HøeghD
  • 6John BjörkengrenD
  • 44Nikolas DyhrD
  • 8Laurits PedersenM
  • 17Mathias GreveM
  • 7Mike ThemsenM
  • 11Elies MahmoudM
  • 15Martin SjølstadM
  • 77Kasper JunkerF
Substitutes
  • 30Mohamed SankohF
  • 5Oliver JonesD
  • 21Axel HenrikssonM
  • 26Hector HøyrupM
  • 22Mert DemirciG
  • 29Simon StükerD
  • 33Cyril EdudziF
  • 19Musa TouréF
  • 9Amin Al-HamawiF
Coach: Rasmus Bertelsen
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 25Colin RöslerD
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenM
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 7Markus SolbakkenM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 8Sebastian JørgensenF
  • 10Kristian ArnstadF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 13Janni SerraF
  • 26Jacob AndersenD
  • 31Tobias BechF
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
  • 44Mouhammade CamaraD
  • 1Jesper HansenG
  • 43Zander GrantzauD
  • 14Tobias MølgaardD
  • 16Jens JønssonM
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Randers FC vs Aarhus

Randers FC

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to FC Midtjylland23 August 2026
  • L0-4FC Copenhagen16 August 2026
  • W2-0Lyngby9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland2 August 2026
  • D1-1Silkeborg27 July 2026

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Benfica27 August 2026
  • D2-2Odense23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026

What these results say

  • Randers FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Randers FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Randers FC had two goals or fewer.
  • Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Randers FC143291427-1311
8Aarhus143651921-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Randers FC vs Aarhus

  • 7 December 2025Randers FC 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 25 July 2025Aarhus 1–2 Randers FCSuperliga
  • 11 May 2025Aarhus 1–3 Randers FCSuperliga
  • 17 April 2025Randers FC 3–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 28 February 2025Randers FC 1–1 AarhusSuperliga

Leading scorers: Randers FC and Aarhus

Randers FC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Themsen51
  • M. Sankoh41

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Randers FC beat Aarhus 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus at 36% and given a win for Randers FC 34%. The goals: Elies Mahmoud 21' for Randers FC, Mike Themsen 28' for Randers FC, Janni Serra 63' for Aarhus. Sent off: Axel Henriksson (Randers FC) 79'. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.97.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.