30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lazio vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lazio 1-0 Genoa.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lazio, 29% draw, 27% Genoa — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lazio at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lazio97%Draw3%Genoa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Leo Østigård
⚽D. Frattesiassist: N. Tavares
25'
🔁N. Rovellaout: R. Belahyane
37'
58'
🔁D. Sowout: Junior Messias
🔁N. Tavaresout: A. Pedraza
63'
🔁M. Cancellieriout: G. Isaksen
63'
63'
🔁Vitinhaout: M. Osmajic
78'
🔁T. Baldanziout: F. Meichtry
78'
🔁J. Vasquezout: Amorim
🔁R. Florianiout: M. Lazzari
80'
🔁B. Diaout: A. Pinamonti
80'
Mattia Zaccagni
90+5'
90+5'
Alexsandro Amorim

Match stats — Lazio vs Genoa

46%Possession54%
15Shots8
2On target1
4Corners2
1.55xG0.58

Goals against chances

Lazio1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth
Genoa0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 15R. FlorianiD
  • 5D. DoekhiD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 17N. TavaresD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 6N. RovellaM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 22M. CancellieriF
  • 19B. DiaF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 13A. RomagnoliD
  • 37J. SutaloD
  • 23A. PedrazaD
  • 33R. BordonD
  • 29M. LazzariM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
  • 71V. FarcomeniM
Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 5L. OstigardD
  • 22J. VasquezD
  • 77M. E. EllertssonM
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 97D. SowM
  • 15B. Norton-CuffyM
  • 8T. BaldanziF
  • 9VitinhaF
  • 29L. ColomboF
Substitutes
  • 39D. SommarivaG
  • 99F. StolzG
  • 85M. VazD
  • 74M. Doucoure
  • 20S. SabelliD
  • 3A. MartinD
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 31D. PuczkaD
  • 34S. OtoaD
Coach: Daniele De Rossi

Form going into Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio

  • W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026

Genoa

  • L0-2Napoli22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lazio431063+310
19Genoa401328-61

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Genoa

  • 30 August 2026Lazio 1–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 30 January 2026Lazio 3–2 GenoaSerie A
  • 29 September 2025Genoa 0–3 LazioSerie A
  • 23 April 2025Genoa 0–2 LazioSerie A
  • 27 October 2024Lazio 3–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 19 April 2024Genoa 0–1 LazioSerie A

Leading scorers: Lazio and Genoa

Lazio

  • D. Frattesi3 goals

Genoa

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.