30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lazio vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lazio 1-0 Genoa.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lazio, 29% draw, 27% Genoa — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lazio at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lazio97%Draw3%Genoa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Leo Østigård
⚽D. Frattesiassist: N. Tavares
25'
🔁N. Rovellaout: R. Belahyane
37'
58'
🔁D. Sowout: Junior Messias
🔁N. Tavaresout: A. Pedraza
63'
🔁M. Cancellieriout: G. Isaksen
63'
63'
🔁Vitinhaout: M. Osmajic
78'
🔁T. Baldanziout: F. Meichtry
78'
🔁J. Vasquezout: Amorim
🔁R. Florianiout: M. Lazzari
80'
🔁B. Diaout: A. Pinamonti
80'
Mattia Zaccagni
90+5'
90+5'
Alexsandro Amorim

Match stats — Lazio vs Genoa

46%Possession54%
15Shots8
2On target1
4Corners2
1.55xG0.58

Goals against chances

Lazio1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth
Genoa0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 15R. FlorianiD
  • 5D. DoekhiD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 17N. TavaresD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 6N. RovellaM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 22M. CancellieriF
  • 19B. DiaF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 13A. RomagnoliD
  • 37J. SutaloD
  • 23A. PedrazaD
  • 33R. BordonD
  • 29M. LazzariM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
  • 71V. FarcomeniM
Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 5L. OstigardD
  • 22J. VasquezD
  • 77M. E. EllertssonM
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 97D. SowM
  • 15B. Norton-CuffyM
  • 8T. BaldanziF
  • 9VitinhaF
  • 29L. ColomboF
Substitutes
  • 39D. SommarivaG
  • 99F. StolzG
  • 85M. VazD
  • 74M. Doucoure
  • 20S. SabelliD
  • 3A. MartinD
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 31D. PuczkaD
  • 34S. OtoaD
Coach: Daniele De Rossi

Form going into Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026

Genoa

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Napoli22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lazio11920259+1629
13Genoa114161116-513

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Genoa

  • 30 January 2026Lazio 3–2 GenoaSerie A
  • 29 September 2025Genoa 0–3 LazioSerie A
  • 23 April 2025Genoa 0–2 LazioSerie A
  • 27 October 2024Lazio 3–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 19 April 2024Genoa 0–1 LazioSerie A

The full Lazio vs Genoa record →

Leading scorers: Lazio and Genoa

Lazio

GoalsAssists

  • T. Noslin44
  • G. Isaksen41
  • D. Frattesi40

Genoa

GoalsAssists

  • M. Osmajić41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lazio beat Genoa 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lazio at 44%. The goal: D. Frattesi 25' for Lazio. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.58.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.