30 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Napoli vs Como Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Napoli 1-2 Como.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Napoli, 28% draw, 29% Como — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Napoli at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Napoli0%Draw5%Como95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽M. Baturinaassist: A. Diao
⚽R. Hojlundassist: A. Rrahmani
30'
34'
⚽A. Douvikasassist: M. Baturina
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
37'
🔁M. Oliveraout: L. Spinazzola
56'
🔁S. McTominayout: K. De Bruyne
56'
🔁N. Langout: Alisson Santos
56'
58'
🔁Y. Coutoout: I. Smolcic
58'
🔁M. Baturinaout: M. Caqueret
65'
🔁A. Diaoout: M. O. Kempf
66'
🔁L. Da Cunhaout: M. Perrone
🔁F. Anguissaout: David Neres
80'
🔁R. Hojlundout: L. Lucca
80'
81'
🔁N. Pazout: Kaiki

Match stats — Napoli vs Como

42%Possession58%
13Shots21
2On target6
2Corners7
1.35xG1.03

Goals against chances

Napoli1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Como2 from 1.03 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13A. RrahmaniD
  • 16R. MarinD
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 99F. AnguissaM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HojlundF
  • 70N. LangF
Substitutes
  • 32V. Milinkovic-SavicG
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 47C. GarofaloD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Como 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ButezG
  • 27Y. CoutoD
  • 4J. RamonD
  • 99T. ChalobahD
  • 3A. ValleD
  • 6L. MillaM
  • 7L. Da CunhaM
  • 11A. DiaoM
  • 10N. PazM
  • 20M. BaturinaM
  • 9A. DouvikasF
Substitutes
  • 22M. VigoritoG
  • 12E. AuderoG
  • 13A. DossenaD
  • 28I. SmolcicD
  • 53W. KambwalaD
  • 16KaikiD
  • 2M. O. KempfD
  • 18E. GoldanigaD
  • 14S. RicciM
Coach: Cesc Fabregas

Form going into Napoli vs Como

Napoli

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Como

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Napoli114341814+415
5Como117221810+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Napoli vs Como

  • 2 May 2026Como 0–0 NapoliSerie A
  • 10 February 2026Napoli 1–1 ComoCoppa Italia
  • 1 November 2025Napoli 0–0 ComoSerie A
  • 23 February 2025Como 2–1 NapoliSerie A
  • 4 October 2024Napoli 3–1 ComoSerie A

The full Napoli vs Como record →

Leading scorers: Napoli and Como

Napoli

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Como

GoalsAssists

  • T. Douvikas50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Como won 2–1 at Napoli. The model had leaned towards a win for Napoli at 43% and given a win for Como 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Baturina 17' for Como, R. Hojlund 30' for Napoli, A. Douvikas 34' for Como. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.03.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.