30 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Napoli vs Como Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Napoli 1-2 Como.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Napoli, 28% draw, 29% Como — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Napoli at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Napoli0%Draw5%Como95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽M. Baturinaassist: A. Diao
⚽R. Hojlundassist: A. Rrahmani
30'
34'
⚽A. Douvikasassist: M. Baturina
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
37'
🔁M. Oliveraout: L. Spinazzola
56'
🔁S. McTominayout: K. De Bruyne
56'
🔁N. Langout: Alisson Santos
56'
58'
🔁Y. Coutoout: I. Smolcic
58'
🔁M. Baturinaout: M. Caqueret
65'
🔁A. Diaoout: M. O. Kempf
66'
🔁L. Da Cunhaout: M. Perrone
🔁F. Anguissaout: David Neres
80'
🔁R. Hojlundout: L. Lucca
80'
81'
🔁N. Pazout: Kaiki

Match stats — Napoli vs Como

42%Possession58%
13Shots21
2On target6
2Corners7
1.35xG1.03

Goals against chances

Napoli1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Como2 from 1.03 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13A. RrahmaniD
  • 16R. MarinD
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 99F. AnguissaM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HojlundF
  • 70N. LangF
Substitutes
  • 32V. Milinkovic-SavicG
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 47C. GarofaloD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Como 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ButezG
  • 27Y. CoutoD
  • 4J. RamonD
  • 99T. ChalobahD
  • 3A. ValleD
  • 6L. MillaM
  • 7L. Da CunhaM
  • 11A. DiaoM
  • 10N. PazM
  • 20M. BaturinaM
  • 9A. DouvikasF
Substitutes
  • 22M. VigoritoG
  • 12E. AuderoG
  • 13A. DossenaD
  • 28I. SmolcicD
  • 53W. KambwalaD
  • 16KaikiD
  • 2M. O. KempfD
  • 18E. GoldanigaD
  • 14S. RicciM
Coach: Cesc Fabregas

Form going into Napoli vs Como

Napoli

  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Como

  • D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Napoli420265+16
3Como431094+510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Napoli vs Como

  • 30 August 2026Napoli 1–2 ComoSerie A
  • 2 May 2026Como 0–0 NapoliSerie A
  • 10 February 2026Napoli 1–1 ComoCoppa Italia
  • 1 November 2025Napoli 0–0 ComoSerie A
  • 23 February 2025Como 2–1 NapoliSerie A
  • 4 October 2024Napoli 3–1 ComoSerie A

Leading scorers: Napoli and Como

Napoli

  • R. Højlund2 goals

Como

  • M. Baturina2 goals1 assists
  • Assane Diao2 goals1 assists
  • T. Douvikas2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.