18 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Referee: Stan Teuben
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Cambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Cambuur, 23% draw, 55% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.55, 4.35 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AZ Alkmaar at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur2%Draw90%AZ Alkmaar8%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nicolas Binderassist: Jason Ceka
7'
10'
Lewis Schouten
Devid Eugene Bouah
24'
26'
⚽Ro Zangelo Daalassist: Peer Koopmeiners
⚽Ilyes Hamacheassist: Billy van Duijl
39'
Devid Eugene Bouah
53'
🔁Jason Cekaout: Rik Mulders
57'
59'
Ayoub Oufkir
63'
🔁Mateo Chávezout: Mees de Wit
63'
🔁Ayoub Oufkirout: Bendegúz Kovács
64'
🔁Jordy Clasieout: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
64'
🔁Wouter Goesout: Dave Kwakman
🔁Nicolas Binderout: Sami Bouhoudane
74'
81'
•Mees de Wit
Johan Plat
81'
Thijs Jansen
82'
83'
⚽Mexx Meerdink (pen)
🔁Mathieu Maertensout: Jorn Berkhout
84'
🔁Ilyes Hamacheout: Iwan Henstra
84'
🔁Rafik El Arguiouiout: Wiebe Kooistra
84'
89'
🔁Calvin Stengsout: Jerolldino Bergraaf

Match stats — Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

36%Possession64%
11Shots7
6On target4
3Corners6
1.53xG1.56

Goals against chances

Cambuur2 from 1.53 xGabout what the chances were worth
AZ Alkmaar2 from 1.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 2D. BouahD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 30J. ÇekaM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 11I. HamacheM
  • 13N. BinderF
Substitutes
  • 24M. KalisvaartG
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 29Iwan HenstraF
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 27W. KooistraF
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 22L. PlogmannG
Coach: J. Plat
AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 27Wassim bouzianeF
  • 17V. ByskovM
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 29W. HoedtD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 30D. KasiusD
  • 18B. KovacsF
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 2S. MaikumaD
Coach: L. Echteld

Form going into Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

Cambuur

Eredivisie

  • W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie

  • L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambuur124352527-215
5AZ Alkmaar127232416+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 25 February 2023AZ Alkmaar 2–1 CambuurEredivisie
  • 28 August 2022Cambuur 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 22 January 2022AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 3 October 2021Cambuur 1–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 2 March 2017AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurKNVB Beker
  • 27 January 2016AZ Alkmaar 3–1 CambuurEredivisie

The full Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar record →

Leading scorers: Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar

Cambuur

GoalsAssists

  • R. El Arguioui62
  • I. Hamache53
  • N. Binder52

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • M. Meerdink63
  • R. Daal51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AZ Alkmaar at 55% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Binder 7' for Cambuur, Ro Zangelo Daal 26' for AZ Alkmaar, Ilyes Hamache 39' for Cambuur, Mexx Meerdink (penalty) 83' for AZ Alkmaar. Sent off: Devid Eugene Bouah (Cambuur) 53'. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cambuur a 35.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.0% after a win, 34.0% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.0%, 1 points lower than before the match.

For AZ Alkmaar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.5% going in: 67.0% after a win, 60.7% after a draw, 56.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 60.7%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 23% / 55%: the biggest move is AZ Alkmaar's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cambuur win22%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. AZ Alkmaar win55%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.