18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

MVV vs Heracles Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Geusselt, Maastricht
Full time1 – 5

Final score: MVV 1-5 Heracles.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% MVV, 28% draw, 46% Heracles — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heracles at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

MVV0%Draw1%Heracles99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sil van der Wegenassist: Yael Liesdek
33'
41'
⚽Maurice Wrusch
43'
⚽Chafik Abbasassist: Jean-Paul N'djoli
51'
⚽Manny Rodriguez Balderaassist: Chafik Abbas
52'
🔁Thomas Brunsout: Max Hauswirth
52'
🔁David Tomicout: Tristan Van Gilst
62'
⚽Jean-Paul N'djoliassist: Chafik Abbas
🔁Robert Klaasenout: Thijme Verheijen
69'
77'
🔁Manny Rodriguez Balderaout: Mario Engels
77'
🔁Mimeirhel Benitaout: Mike te Wierik
🔁Yael Liesdekout: Delano Asante
77'
🔁Naim Matougout: Onesime Zimuangana
77'
82'
⚽Jean-Paul N'djoliassist: Mario Engels
83'
🔁Djevencio van der Kustout: Daniel Van Kaam
Lennerd Daneels
89'

Match stats — MVV vs Heracles

46%Possession54%
7Shots23
3On target12
3Corners9
0.58xG2.88

Goals against chances

MVV1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
Heracles5 from 2.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

MVV 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. WentgesG
  • 17S. WegenD
  • 6F. DickeD
  • 22Sven BoulandD
  • 25Yael LiesdekD
  • 16R. KlaasenM
  • 18E. SierraM
  • 19Mika LuijendijkM
  • 10O. DumontM
  • 27Naïm MatougM
  • 7L. DaneelsF
Substitutes
  • 12S. van der HeijdenG
  • 29O. ZimuanganaF
  • 11T. VerheijenF
  • 13S. TimmersG
  • 14M. KuipersF
  • 31Yanis BourardM
  • 21D. AsanteF
  • 20A. AmgarM
  • 33Tristan BombleD
Coach: A. Jonker
Heracles 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. de KeijzerG
  • 2M. BenitaD
  • 4D. MiraniD
  • 14M. WruschD
  • 25MannyD
  • 5D. van der KustM
  • 32S. SchepermanM
  • 7C. AbbasM
  • 10T. BrunsM
  • 6D. TomićM
  • 27J. N'djoliF
Substitutes
  • 35S. BultmanD
  • 8M. EngelsM
  • 22Tarik HamamiogluF
  • 18M. HauswirthD
  • 16T. JansinkG
  • 9V. PopplerF
  • 33L. ZeevalkinkG
  • 23M. te WierikD
  • 17T. van GilstF
Coach: V. Heilmann

Form going into MVV vs Heracles

MVV

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026

Heracles

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8MVV146261929-1020
1Heracles1512214616+3038

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MVV vs Heracles

  • 13 February 2023MVV 0–2 HeraclesEerste Divisie
  • 29 August 2022Heracles 2–2 MVVEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: MVV and Heracles

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

Heracles

GoalsAssists

  • J. N'djoli143
  • T. van Gilst112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heracles won 5–1 at MVV. The model had made a win for Heracles its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sil van der Wegen 33' for MVV, Maurice Wrusch 41' for Heracles, Chafik Abbas 43' for Heracles, Manny Rodriguez Baldera 51' for Heracles, Jean-Paul N'djoli 62' for Heracles, Jean-Paul N'djoli 82' for Heracles. On expected goals it finished 0.58–2.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MVV a 28.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.7% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 31.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.5%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Heracles the question was the chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season, 31.1% going in: 35.6% after a win, 27.5% after a draw, 24.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.6%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on MVV v Heracles has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is Heracles's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. MVV win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Heracles win46%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.