18 October 2026, 10:15 UTC

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie prediction & result

Zwolle
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Full time4 – 1

Final score: PEC Zwolle 4-1 GO Ahead Eagles.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% PEC Zwolle, 24% draw, 50% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GO Ahead Eagles at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PEC Zwolle99%Draw1%GO Ahead Eagles0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
🔁Sherel Floranusout: Damian van der Haar
24'
⚽Sydney van Hooijdonkassist: Dylan Mbayo
47'
⚽Thijs Oosting
58'
65'
🔁Dean Ruben Jamesout: Tomas Galvez
65'
🔁Evert Linthorstout: Yassir Salah Rahmouni
65'
🔁Mathis Surayout: Thibo Baeten
⚽Thijs Oostingassist: Damian van der Haar
70'
71'
🔁Alfons Sampstedout: Oskar Siira Sivertsen
🔁Dylan Mbayoout: Ibrahim Cissoko
71'
78'
🔁Giovanni Van Zwamout: Erik Flataker Hovden
🔁Sydney van Hooijdonkout: Koen Kostons
80'
🔁Gilles Van Der Walout: Jan Burger
80'
🔁Ryan Thomasout: Tijs Velthuis
81'
⚽Koen Kostonsassist: Ibrahim Cissoko
89'

Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

41%Possession59%
19Shots18
9On target6
5Corners6
1.81xG2.76

Goals against chances

PEC Zwolle4 from 1.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
GO Ahead Eagles1 from 2.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchendelaarG
  • 3O. AertssenD
  • 28S. GravesD
  • 24N. ViergeverD
  • 2S. FloranusD
  • 30R. ThomasM
  • 8T. SommerM
  • 37Gilles van der WalM
  • 25T. OostingM
  • 11D. MbayoM
  • 17S. van HooijdonkF
Substitutes
  • 22I. CissokoF
  • 41D. VerduinG
  • 16T. de GraaffG
  • 34N. FichtingerM
  • 10K. KostonsF
  • 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
  • 20G. ReizigerM
  • 9E. SørensenF
  • 33D. van der HaarD
Coach: Henry van der Vegt
GO Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HaugG
  • 2A. SampstedD
  • 25G. van ZwamD
  • 4J. KramerD
  • 5D. JamesD
  • 21M. MeulensteenM
  • 8E. LinthorstM
  • 16V. EdvardsenM
  • 10S. TengstedtM
  • 17M. SurayM
  • 9S. SigurðarsonF
Substitutes
  • 15R. WeijenbergM
  • 30T. HullemanG
  • 33N. VerdoniG
  • 11O. SivertsenF
  • 34Y. RahmouniM
  • 3G. NauberD
  • 18R. MargaretF
  • 6T. JukićD
  • 27Tomas GalvezD
Coach: J. Oosting

Form going into PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie

  • L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026

GO Ahead Eagles

Eredivisie

  • D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13PEC Zwolle123361324-1112
8GO Ahead Eagles124532427-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

  • 5 April 2026GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 21 September 2025PEC Zwolle 0–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 11 May 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 3 November 2024GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 11 February 2024GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 17 September 2023PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

The full PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles record →

Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles

PEC Zwolle

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

GO Ahead Eagles

GoalsAssists

  • S. Tengstedt92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PEC Zwolle beat GO Ahead Eagles 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for GO Ahead Eagles at 50% and given a win for PEC Zwolle 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson 22' for GO Ahead Eagles, Sydney van Hooijdonk 47' for PEC Zwolle, Thijs Oosting 58' for PEC Zwolle, Thijs Oosting 70' for PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons 89' for PEC Zwolle. On expected goals it finished 1.81–2.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PEC Zwolle a 71.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 63.8% after a win, 71.2% after a draw, 75.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.8%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 24% / 50%: the biggest move is GO Ahead Eagles's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. PEC Zwolle win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. GO Ahead Eagles win50%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.