30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Monaco vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Louis II, Monaco
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Monaco 2-0 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Monaco, 29% draw, 32% Marseille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Monaco at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monaco99%Draw1%Marseille0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Brunnerassist: A. Golovin
13'
Denis Zakaria
42'
Lamine Camara
43'
46'
🔁H. Abdelliout: T. Nnadi
46'
🔁Q. Timberout: K. Abdallah
⚽P. Brunnerassist: E. Dier
53'
58'
🔁G. Kondogbiaout: N. Aguerd
73'
🔁out: N. Maupay
🔁M. Coulibalyout: A. Soubeir
81'
🔁A. Golovinout: M. Abline
81'
🔁P. Brunnerout: M. Biereth
81'
🔁S. Idumboout: M. Detourbet
85'
85'
🔁A. Gomesout: F. Moumbagna
Nazinho
88'
Lukáš Hrádecký
90+2'

Match stats — Monaco vs Marseille

35%Possession65%
11Shots13
5On target3
5Corners7
1.49xG1.22

Goals against chances

Monaco2 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Marseille0 from 1.22 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monaco 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. HradeckyG
  • 2VandersonD
  • 72S. SaneD
  • 15E. DierD
  • 20NazinhoD
  • 8L. CamaraM
  • 6D. ZakariaM
  • 28M. CoulibalyM
  • 10A. GolovinM
  • 17S. IdumboM
  • 29P. BrunnerF
Substitutes
  • 16P. KohnG
  • 4J. TezeD
  • 13C. MawissaD
  • 5T. KehrerD
  • 46A. SoubeirM
  • 47S. BenzahraM
  • 11M. AblineF
  • 14M. BierethF
  • 7M. DetourbetF
Coach: Luis Filipe
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. De LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 19G. KondogbiaD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 23P. HojbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 27Q. TimberM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 6T. NnadiM
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 29F. MoumbagnaF
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 11N. MaupayF
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Monaco vs Marseille

Monaco

  • W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026

Marseille

  • W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Monaco431062+410
13Marseille41036603

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monaco vs Marseille

  • 30 August 2026Monaco 2–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 5 April 2026Monaco 2–1 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 14 December 2025Marseille 1–0 MonacoLigue 1
  • 12 April 2025Monaco 3–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 1 December 2024Marseille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
  • 27 January 2024Marseille 2–2 MonacoLigue 1

Leading scorers: Monaco and Marseille

Monaco

  • Paris Josua Brunner3 goals

Marseille

  • A. Gouiri4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.