Monaco vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 2-0 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Monaco, 29% draw, 32% Marseille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Marseille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HradeckyG
- 2VandersonD
- 72S. SaneD
- 15E. DierD
- 20NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 17S. IdumboM
- 29P. BrunnerF
- 16P. KohnG
- 4J. TezeD
- 13C. MawissaD
- 5T. KehrerD
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 11M. AblineF
- 14M. BierethF
- 7M. DetourbetF
- 12J. De LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 19G. KondogbiaD
- 33EmersonD
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 23P. HojbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 7A. GomesM
- 27Q. TimberM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 92T. VermotG
- 21N. AguerdD
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 6T. NnadiM
- 43T. MmadiF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 11N. MaupayF
Form going into Monaco vs Marseille
Monaco
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Gornik Zabrze27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze20 August 2026
Marseille
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Marseille
- 5 April 2026Monaco 2–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 14 December 2025Marseille 1–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 12 April 2025Monaco 3–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 1 December 2024Marseille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 27 January 2024Marseille 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Marseille
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco beat Marseille 2–0. The model had made a win for Monaco its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: P. Brunner 13' for Monaco, P. Brunner 53' for Monaco. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.22.