30 August 2026, 14:45 UTC

Telstar vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Telstar 0-4 Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Telstar, 30% draw, 30% Ajax — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Telstar at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Telstar0%Draw1%Ajax99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
⚽D. Klaassenassist: S. Berghuis
44'
•J. Brandt
56'
⚽S. Berghuisassist: O. Gloukh
60'
⚽T. Arokodareassist: S. Berghuis
🔁J. Hardeveldout: P. Aning
65'
🔁R. Mendesout: F. Rust
65'
🔁J. Seedorfout: F. Turay
65'
65'
🔁D. Klaassenout: A. Ouazane
66'
🔁J. Brandtout: Y. Baas
73'
🔁O. Gloukhout: O. Edvardsen
73'
🔁S. Berghuisout: Marcos Leonardo
🔁G. Aldersout: G. Caschili
74'
🔁M. Peersmanout: E. Demircan
77'
78'
⚽Marcos Leonardo
82'
🔁Caio Henriqueout: J. Torrents

Match stats — Telstar vs Ajax

42%Possession58%
11Shots12
4On target9
5Corners4
1.13xG2.13

Goals against chances

Telstar0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Ajax4 from 2.13 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Telstar 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. Koeman JrG
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 3G. AldersM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 10T. OwusuM
  • 2J. HardeveldM
  • 7R. MendesF
  • 27P. BrouwerF
  • 9J. SeedorfF
Substitutes
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 13F. Mulder
  • 18G. CaschiliD
  • 5P. AningM
  • 15N. Nwankwo
  • 6I. AhmedM
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 19F. RustF
  • 28R. OudstenD
Coach: Henk Brugge
Ajax 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
  • 23S. BerghuisM
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 10O. GloukhM
  • 8J. BrandtF
  • 99T. ArokodareF
Substitutes
  • 22J. HeerkensG
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 21J. TorrentsD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 67M. AbdallaM
  • 9K. DolbergF
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
Coach: Michel

Form going into Telstar vs Ajax

Telstar

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
  • W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026

Ajax

All competitions we cover

  • W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Sion20 August 2026
  • D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Shelbourne13 August 2026
  • W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ajax went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Telstar122461825-710
3Ajax127413215+1725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Telstar vs Ajax

  • 11 January 2026Telstar 2–3 AjaxEredivisie
  • 10 August 2025Ajax 2–0 TelstarEredivisie
  • 19 December 2024Ajax 2–0 TelstarKNVB Beker
  • 18 December 2019Telstar 3–4 AjaxKNVB Beker

The full Telstar vs Ajax record →

Leading scorers: Telstar and Ajax

Telstar

GoalsAssists

  • T. Owusu51

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare71
  • J. Brandt62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax won 4–0 at Telstar. The model had leaned towards a win for Telstar at 40% and given a win for Ajax 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Klaassen 37' for Ajax, S. Berghuis 56' for Ajax, T. Arokodare 60' for Ajax, Marcos Leonardo 78' for Ajax. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.13.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.