FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% FC Augsburg, 27% draw, 24% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Augsburg at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Finn DahmenG
- 40Noahkai BanksD
- 5Chrislain MatsimaD
- 2Calvin BrackelmannD
- 27Marius WolfM
- 4Han-Noah MassengoM
- 32Fabian RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 30Anton KadeF
- 19Robin FellhauerF
- 11Michael GregoritschF
- 10Mert KömürM
- 14Yannik KeitelM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 7Young-woo SeolD
- 6Jeffrey GouweleeuwD
- 22Nediljko LabrovićG
- 37Tim SchnitzerM
- 34Nathanaël MbukuF
- 39Uchenna OgunduF
- 1Loris KariusG
- 5Timo BeckerD
- 25Nikola KatićD
- 4Hasan KuruçayD
- 21Dejan LjubičićM
- 23Soufiane El-FaouziM
- 6Ron SchallenbergM
- 33Vitalie BeckerM
- 20Junior AdamuF
- 24Adil AouchicheF
- 9Moussa SyllaF
- 39Maximilian WöberD
- 8Robin GosensD
- 29Eric EbimbeM
- 10Edin DžekoF
- 43Mertcan AyhanD
- 22Kevin MüllerG
- 38Luca VozarM
- 13Satoshi TanakaM
- 14Janik BachmannM
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04
- 30 August 2026FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 29 October 2024FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
- 18 March 2023FC Augsburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 2 October 2022FC Schalke 04 2–3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 17 July 2022FC Augsburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs
- 11 April 2021FC Schalke 04 1–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.