Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Luqueno 0-3 Nacional Asuncion.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Sportivo Luqueno, 26% draw, 53% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. CampisiG
- 14F. BenitezD
- 5J. DiazD
- 6F. WiechniakD
- 23A. CanteroD
- 21M. OjedaM
- 8A. MaízM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 25J. RamosM
- 20I. MaggiF
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 24S. BeltránM
- 18F. BobadillaM
- 37L. ComasM
- 40A. EspinolaG
- 26O. LopezD
- 15S. MaldonadoM
- 34Á. MartínezM
- 29T. MuroM
- 7K. PereiraF
- 30S. RojasG
- 23C. EspínolaD
- 22R. MelgarejoD
- 3M. CoronelD
- 29S. VargasD
- 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
- 10J. ColmánM
- 8F. JaraM
- 13L. MezaM
- 18I. ValdezM
- 9H. BenítezF
- 7I. BailoneF
- 5G. BenítezD
- 39D. CaballeroF
- 33O. GaonaM
- 19L. GonzálezF
- 4T. GutiérrezD
- 36F. PelozoF
- 27R. PrietoF
- 32F. PumpidoM
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
- W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
- 24 August 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 27 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 3–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 January 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 12 October 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 29 July 2025Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 May 2025Nacional Asuncion 4–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nacional Asuncion won 3–0 at Sportivo Luqueno. The model had made a win for Nacional Asuncion its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fabrizio Jara 8' for Nacional Asuncion, Hugo Adrián Benítez 35' for Nacional Asuncion, Leandro Meza 37' for Nacional Asuncion. Sent off: Aldo Maiz (Sportivo Luqueno) 48'. On expected goals it finished 0.40–0.94.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Luqueno a 65.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.0% after a win, 63.4% after a draw, 71.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.5%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.
For Nacional Asuncion the question was the chance to win the league, 16.4% going in: 21.5% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Luqueno v Nacional Asuncion has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 19% / 25% / 56% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 21% / 26% / 53%: the biggest move is Nacional Asuncion's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sportivo Luqueno win21%▲ +2
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Nacional Asuncion win53%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.