31 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Gunther Vogel, San Lorenzo
Referee: Carlos P. Benitez
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-1 Libertad Asuncion.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 53% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Libertad Asuncion at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Sp. San Lorenzo2%Draw93%Libertad Asuncion5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Kevin Ferreira Gonzalez
4'
7'
⚽Marcelo Fernándezassist: Hugo Fernandez
Franco Aragón
22'
•Teodoro Paredes
33'
⚽Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordónassist: Gastón Gerzel
34'
45+3'
Nestor Gimenez
45'
🔁Nicolás Freireout: Robert Rojas
45'
🔁Marcelo Fernándezout: Lorenzo Melgarejo
45'
🔁Hugo Fernandezout: Federico Carrizo
🔁Gastón Gerzelout: Héctor Villamayor
45'
59'
🔁Agustín Manzurout: Gustavo Aguilar
🔁Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalezout: Ángel Benítez
66'
🔁Kevin Ferreira Gonzalezout: K. Fernández
66'
71'
🔁Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreiraout: Alexis Ramón Fretes Lugo
🔁Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordónout: Santiago Salcedo
71'
🔁J. Barriosout: R. Amarilla
88'
⚽Santiago Salcedo (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion

44%Possession56%
17Shots19
8On target7
7Corners4
1.76xG0.95

Goals against chances

Club Sp. San Lorenzo2 from 1.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Libertad Asuncion1 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 31L. FrancoG
  • 2L. EstecheD
  • 21H. GonzalezD
  • 5T. ParedesD
  • 13Isaias FretesD
  • 28P. GerzelM
  • 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
  • 32F. AragónM
  • 22K. FerreiraM
  • 23M. FerreiraF
  • 9J. BarriosF
Substitutes
  • 24Matias AgueroD
  • 16Á. BenítezM
  • 33Gustavo Luis Centurion VillalbaG
  • 25K. FernándezM
  • 27Elias OrtizM
  • 15B. PiñataresM
  • 37Santiago Exequiel Salcedo Bernatto
  • 7S. SalcedoF
  • 14J. SalcedoM
Coach: S. Orteman
Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
  • 12R. MorínigoG
  • 2A. BenítezD
  • 5G. FloresD
  • 23N. FreireD
  • 4N. GiménezD
  • 20H. FernándezM
  • 6Á. CampuzanoM
  • 7A. ManzurM
  • 28M. FernándezM
  • 11E. VeraF
  • 26I. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 10L. MelgarejoM
  • 3R. RojasD
  • 29V. RojasG
  • 21L. SanabriaM
  • 24R. VillalbaD
  • 34E. VillalbaD
  • 14A. FretesD
  • 31T. FernándezD
  • 8F. CarrizoM
Coach: Nelson Valdez

Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026

Libertad Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1925121432-1811
3Libertad Asuncion1910362820+833

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion

  • 24 August 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 May 2026Libertad Asuncion 5–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 2 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–7 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 20 September 2023Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Libertad AsuncionCopa Paraguay
  • 27 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Libertad AsuncionCopa Paraguay
  • 20 November 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Libertad Asuncion

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira51

Libertad Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vera162

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat Libertad Asuncion 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Libertad Asuncion at 53% and given a win for Club Sp. San Lorenzo 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Fernández 7' for Libertad Asuncion, Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón 34' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Santiago Salcedo (penalty) 90+5' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Libertad Asuncion a 79.2% chance to finish in the top four: 86.8% after a win, 73.4% after a draw, 64.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.6%, 14.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.