Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-2 OFI.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 30% draw, 38% OFI — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
OFI at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. MarcianoG
- 2G. MizrahiD
- 44D. DiopD
- 15I. NachmiasD
- 3M. BaltaxaD
- 17A. ForsonM
- 28N. YehoshuaM
- 9Z. AhmedM
- 45M. Abu RumiF
- 90A. UgarrizaF
- 14Y. MaledeF
- 8M. Kna'anF
- 66I. ZlatanovićF
- 5Pedro AmadorD
- 13O. DavidzadaD
- 20J. EastF
- 11A. GanahF
- 70João VictorF
- 4M. VítorD
- 12I. RotmanD
- 1K. LiloG
- 15A. PoungourasD
- 43D. NikolaouD
- 2K. KrizmanićD
- 24L. DickmannM
- 41A. BouchalakisM
- 14T. AndroutsosM
- 3N. AthanasiouM
- 11T. FountasF
- 19K. KodroF
- 18T. NussF
- 17Borja GonzálezD
- 16C. SielisD
- 9A. LeyaF
- 5K. KostoulasD
- 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
- 13P. KatsikasG
- 6Z. KarachaliosM
- 8G. KanellópoulosM
- 10Aitor CantalapiedraF
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI
Hapoel Beer Sheva
UEFA Europa League
- L0-4away to Union St. Gilloise22 October 2026
- L1-2away to AZ Alkmaar15 October 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026
OFI
UEFA Europa League
- L0-2Bayer Leverkusen22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Rennes15 October 2026
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
OFI won 2–0 at Hapoel Beer Sheva. The model had made a win for OFI its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Achilleas Poungouras 45+2' for OFI, Taxiarchis Fountas 56' for OFI. On expected goals it finished 1.52–0.75.
How the call on Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFI has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Hapoel Beer Sheva's chance of winning, down 18 points.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win32%▼ −18
- Draw30%▲ +6
- OFI win38%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Hapoel Beer Sheva's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and OFI's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.