Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Levski Sofia, 32% draw, 34% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Levski Sofia at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 92S. VutsovG
- 21AldairD
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 4C. MakounD
- 3MaiconD
- 35SerginhoM
- 8M. GrujićM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 22M. SoulaF
- 7ReinaldoF
- 17Everton BalaF
- 47A. BourasM
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 27David KussoF
- 78M. LukovG
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 31N. SerafimovD
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 9J. PereaF
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
- 3D. StojinovićD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 10J. AgbonifoF
- 99N. PrelecF
- 7K. SzmytF
- 30O. SowM
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 4Y. KobayashiD
- 72K. JóźwiakM
- 14H. FinndellM
- 32A. ĆirkovićF
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 20B. WdowikD
- 85Eryk KozlowskiM
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Plzen22 October 2026
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen15 October 2026
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League
- L0-3Anderlecht22 October 2026
- W3-1Ararat-Armenia15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Levski Sofia beat Jagiellonia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Levski Sofia at 34%. The goal: Steven Stoyanchov 83' for Levski Sofia. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.05.
How the call on Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 32% / 34%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, down 20 points.
- Levski Sofia win34%▼ −20
- Draw32%▲ +7
- Jagiellonia win34%▲ +13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Levski Sofia's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Jagiellonia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.