15 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Genk vs KVC Westerlo Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Cegeka Arena, Genk
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Genk 3-2 KVC Westerlo.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Genk, 23% draw, 20% KVC Westerlo — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Genk at 57% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽D. Ouregaassist: C. Congreve
R. Durosinmi
8'
13'
⚽M. Smets (OG)
J. Erenbjerg
36'
⚽R. Durosinmi (pen)
41'
⚽B. Heynenassist: A. Yokoyama
43'
61'
C. Congreve
66'
🔁C. Congreveout: R. Laalaoui
66'
🔁N. Bassetteout: D. Jochem
🔁R. Durosinmiout: A. Bibout
70'
71'
🔁L. Mbamba-Muandaout: L. Flo
74'
R. Laalaoui
🔁J. Erenbjergout: K. Haroun
75'
🔁I. Bangouraout: D. Heymans
76'
77'
D. Jochem
⚽A. Bibout
79'
🔁B. Heynenout: N. Sattlberger
83'
85'
🔁R. Munzout: A. Lapage
85'
🔁I. Fofanaout: Yang Min-Hyuk
K. Haroun
87'

Match stats — Genk vs KVC Westerlo

51%Possession49%
22Shots12
7On target2
8Corners4
4.24xG0.85

Goals against chances

Genk3 from 4.24 xGless than the chances were worth
KVC Westerlo2 from 0.85 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genk
  • 28L. Brughmans
  • 77Z. El Ouahdi
  • 6M. Smets
  • 44J. Kongolo
  • 18J. Kayembe
  • 21I. Bangoura
  • 8B. Heynen
  • 10J. Ito
  • 11J. Erenbjerg
  • 30A. Yokoyama
  • 17R. Durosinmi
Substitutes
  • 26T. Lawal
  • 19Y. Medina
  • 84E. Sarfo
  • 38D. Heymans
  • 24N. Sattlberger
  • 86K. Haroun
  • 29R. Mirisola
  • 32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
  • 23A. Bibout
Coach: Jess Thorup
KVC Westerlo
  • 99A. Jungdal
  • 23L. Mbamba-Muanda
  • 5S. Kimura
  • 6R. Munz
  • 28D. Ourega
  • 20C. Congreve
  • 14C. Sandra
  • 45I. Fofana
  • 7S. Saito
  • 9N. Bassette
  • 13I. Sakamoto
Substitutes
  • 1B. Lathouwers
  • 2L. Flo
  • 24M. Ndembi
  • 4A. Lapage
  • 39T. Van den Keybus
  • 12R. Laalaoui
  • 17D. Jochem
  • 10A. Patrao
  • 47Yang Min-Hyuk
Coach: Issame Charai

Form going into Genk vs KVC Westerlo

Genk

  • L1-2away to Zulte Waregem9 August 2026

KVC Westerlo

  • L1-5Union St. Gilloise8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Genk6231139+49
13KVC Westerlo62131316-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genk vs KVC Westerlo

  • 15 August 2026Genk 3–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 10 May 2026Genk 3–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 18 April 2026KVC Westerlo 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 14 December 2025Genk 1–1 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 2 November 2025KVC Westerlo 0–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 25 January 2025KVC Westerlo 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Genk and KVC Westerlo

Genk

  • R. Durosinmi5 goals

KVC Westerlo

  • S. Saito3 goals
  • N. Bassette3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.