Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sarmiento Junin, 28% draw, 35% River Plate — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sarmiento Junin at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuárezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 5M. GarcíaM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 10Jhon RenteríaF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 21J. MavillaF
- 33G. DíazM
- 35F. AlaggiaM
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 23E. GiménezM
- 39Joel GodoyD
- 11G. GonzálezF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 7P. MagnínF
- 41S. BeltránG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. MartínezD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcuñaD
- 15F. VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 26T. GalvánM
- 10Á. CorreaF
- 9S. DriussiF
- 18L. BeltránM
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 19R. BorréF
- 33E. CenturiónG
- 27Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaM
- 20G. GonzálezD
- 24J. MezaM
- 6A. MorenoM
- 3F. OrtegaD
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto11 October 2026
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin.
- River Plate scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- River Plate won 4 of these 5 matches.
- River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 21 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
- 15 March 2026River Plate 2–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 October 2025River Plate 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 April 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024River Plate 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 March 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarmiento Junin at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Julián Contrera 15' for Sarmiento Junin, Gonzalo Montiel 71' for River Plate. On expected goals it finished 1.28–1.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarmiento Junin a 43.5% chance to finish in the top four: 62.4% after a win, 39.8% after a draw, 24.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 39.8%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
For River Plate the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 15.7% going in: 30.3% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.5%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sarmiento Junin v River Plate has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is River Plate's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sarmiento Junin win37%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- River Plate win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.